Analysis Of Real Estate Investment On Total Factor Productivity Based On Credit Intermediary Effect

In recent years,China's high-speed economic development has gradually changed to medium-high-speed development,economic development has entered the new normal economy,and the new economic growth power under the new normal economy lies in how to effectively improve the total factor productivity.For such a special economic development environment in our country,as two important index factors for indirect measurement of total factor productivity,labor factor and capital input factor,are inextricably linked to the real estate market,and real estate investment is one of the key factors that determine the development of the real estate market.At the same time,real estate investment will also be able to give birth to other industries by crowding out credit for other industries,Then this thesis holds that there is a certain connection between total factor productivity,real estate investment and real estate credit in China Therefore,the purpose of this paper is to explore whether the abnormal increase of the scale of real estate investment will become the shackle of our country's total factor productivity increase..On the one hand,in order to study the impact of real estate investment on total factor productivity change,this paper firstly calculates the total factor by using the potential output method after collecting the relevant index data from 2005 to 2017,and then analyzes through the regression measurement model that the real estate investment has a significant impact on the total factor productivity.On the other hand,this paper discusses the impact of real estate investment on the total factor productivity through the intermediate medium-real estate credit,firstly using the intermediary effect detection method to test the significant intermediary effect of the three.TFP has a significant impact,which indirectly indicates that real estate credit is an important way for real estate investment to affect TFP,and the regression result of TFP can be interpreted as“crowding effect”.At the same time,the direct and indirect effects of real estate investment on total factor productivity are significantly different in different regions.Through research and analysis,this paper finds that: first,real estate investment significantly negatively affects the change of total factor productivity;second,real estate credit is an important intermediate medium for real estate investment to restrain the growth of total factor productivity through crowding effect,and there is a significant incomplete intermediary effect between real estate investment,real estatecredit and total factor productivity.On the one hand,the impact of real estate investment on real estate credit scale and real estate credit efficiency is positive,on the other hand,the effect of real estate investment on credit scale is obviously greater than that on real estate credit efficiency;finally,after adding real estate credit intermediary variables,real estate investment suppresses The crowding-out effect of total factor productivity(TFP)is obvious through the scale of real estate credit,and the regional empirical results and the national level empirical results even if there are some differences,but the overall trend of action is consistent.