Study On The Effect Of Real Estate Investment On The Change Of Total Factor Productivity

Since 2014,Chinese economic development starts to enter into a new upgrading stage,and the government proposed the "development strategy to improve the total factor productivity(TFP)".Against this background,making the study on influencing factors of TFP development is particularly urgent.This research pays attention on : whether Chinese expanding real estate investment will influences the TFP level? Will the real estate economy has an impact on local redit development level and then plays a role in the promotion of the TFP? Based on the above questions,this paper studies the internal relationship between the real estate investment,the redit development level,and the change of TFP with therotical and empirical analysis.And,a beneficial exploration is made for observing the change of the quality of regional economic growth based on the perspective of real estate economy.Firstly,the paper reviews factors that influence TFP,the impact of real estate economy on credit development level and the change of TFP.Secondly,the present situation of the real estate market,the real estate credit development level and TFP change is analyzed.Thirdly,based on theoretical research,the paper puts forward some paths of real estate investment's effects on technical progress and technical efficiency,and the real estate investment's effect on credit development level,then credit development level may become the middle channel on the influence of TFP.Based on the panel data of Chinese 276 cities in 2002-2015,the empirical analysis firstly explores the specific path of the real estate investment's influence in TFP growth by means of econometric model.Secondly the paper uses the intermediary effect model to explore whether the real estate investment will affect credit amount,credit efficiency,credit structure and then TFP.Finally,the paper does the zone analysis and the robustness test by replacing key variables.The main conclusions and suggestions are as follows:(1)The real estate investment ratio significantly inhibits the growth of TFP,and is mainly achieved through the negative effect on the technical efficiency.We should maintain a moderate scale of real estate investment in association with the characteristics of local economic and social development;(2)Through intermediary effect model,real estate investment will significantly increase the credit amount,and further affect the progress of TFP and technical efficiency.It is also significant in the influence of credit efficiency to technical efficiency.It is suggested that the allocation bias of financial resources to real estate investment should be strictly controlled.(3)The increase of real estate investment scale will significantly reduce the proportion of industrial loans in bank credit,and worsen the negative impact of real estate investment on TFP changes and technological progress.It is suggested that the structure of the financial market should be perfected to alleviate the information asymmetry,so as to meet the reasonable financial demand of the more pluralistic enterprises.(4)In the downward trend of economic efficiency,the specific reasons for each region are not the same.It should be combined with the actual problems in the regional economy to accurately lock the causes and take the remedy to the case.