Land Price,Housing Price And Financial Stability

Land as a production factor is the cornerstone of housing construction.The price of land directly constitutes the cost of housing construction and also affects the trend of housing prices.In recent years,urban housing prices have not only continued to rise,but also exhibited frequent fluctuations and regional differentiation.The development and construction of urban housing and the purchase of housing by residents are inseparable from the financial support of financial institutions.Stimulated by abundant money and speculative behavior,housing prices in some cities have shown irrational prosperity and accumulated housing price bubbles and risks.It is very likely that risks will be transmitted to commercial banks and other financial institutions through real estate mortgage channels of housing development companies and residents,and further impact the smooth operation of the financial system.At the same time,under China's planned land use system,the asset value of land has also been fully tapped,and functions such as land finance and land financing have been derived.In the context of China's rapid urbanization and fast macroeconomic growth,land prices have shown the general characteristics of overall rise and land price differentiation for different uses,and land price fluctuations can be directly affected through the financial and financing functions of land and directly passing risk to the financial system,or indirectly by affecting housing prices.Based on the above logical thinking,the main body of this article is divided into three parts,which are developed in accordance with the logical framework of theoretical analysis,hypothesis-empirical design and discussion of possible measures.The first part consists of Chapter 2.This part analyzes the interaction between land price,housing price and financial stability in theory,and puts forward two theoretical hypotheses to be tested on the basis of theoretical analysis.The second part consists of Chapters 3,4 and 5.First,it's the construct of financial stability index.Then selecting the panel data of land prices,housing prices,and financial stability in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2009 to 2017.Using the panel VAR model to analyze the interaction between the land between prices,housing prices and financial stability,and test the hypothesis.At the same time,the regional differences of the abovementioned impact relationships were analyzed on the basis of the eastern,central and western divisions of 35 cities.The third part is composed of chapter 6 and mainly contains conclusions and policy discussions.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)housing price fluctuations can transmit risks to the financial system through mortgage channels,and have a significant adverse impact on financial stability;(2)land price changes can accumulate risks through the "land financing" model and directly affect financial stability,and can also indirectly affect financial stability by affecting housing price changes;(3)there are regional differences between these two effects in cities in the east,middle,and west;(4)full consideration should be given to the actual differences in various regions when we targeted price regulation of land and housing markets.