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Research On The Formation Mechanism Of International Trade Network By Value Added Of Multiple Industries

Posted on:2021-03-11Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y Y XuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330614957900Subject:International Trade
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China has reached the stage of urgent need for industrial upgrading.Nearly five years have passed since the signature of the ?made in China 2025 ?.The choice of industrial development path and the cultivation of competitive advantages are worth discussing.With the disappearance of the demographic dividend,the aging of the population and the rise of various costs,China's production advantage in low-end manufacturing is gradually disappearing,but its competitive advantage in the international medium and high-end industries has not been fully cultivated.These two problems are closely related to industrial comparative advantage,so we should continue to attach importance to the relationship between comparative advantage and trade pattern,and think about how to cultivate comparative advantage into competitive advantage.This thesis uses the domestic value added of industry export to calculate a more real comparative advantage,using the international trade network to reflect the trade pattern between countries,and integrates the theoretical mechanism between the comparative advantage and trade pattern to explain the impact of industrial value added on the formation of international trade network.Then,the international trade network of 12 industries in 63 countries and regions was constructed,and the variables such as comparative advantage,demand and trade cost were integrated and estimated in the exponential random graph model(ERGM),and the impact of industry added value on the formation of international trade network was quantitatively estimated from the perspective of the formation of global trade network of many countries.The empirical results show that comparative advantage determines the overall trade pattern to some extent.In different industries and different time sections,comparative advantage significantly increases the probability of export trade,but it has different promoting effects on different industries.On the whole,population size and per capita income have significantly positive effects on trade relations in different industries and different years,which have obvious promoting effects.Trade distance is a very important factor affecting trade pattern.Countries in the same region are more inclined to trade with each other.For some industries,the degree of cross-border trade convenience and tariffs have no significant impact on trade relations.A country needs to have a clearer understanding of its comparative advantages in different industries and their impact on import and export trade relations,attach importance to population factors,improve the cross-border trading environment as much as possible,and moderately reduce tariffs according to national strategies.Considering the impact of the COVID-19 in early 2020,China still needs to maintain the whole industrial chain after the industrial upgrading,but it needs to improve and integrate to improve efficiency.
Keywords/Search Tags:International trade network, Comparative advantage, Exponential random graph models, Export domestic value added
PDF Full Text Request
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