Study On The Mechanism And Effect Of COVID-19 On The Structure Of Global Service Trade Network

In recent years,global service trade has developed rapidly,and its growth rate has surpassed the growth rate of traditional cargo trade,and at the same time higher than the GDP growth rate,its influence in the world economy has increased,becoming an important economic growth point for the global economy.However,the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has largely suppressed the development momentum of global service trade.After the outbreak of the epidemic,in order to prevent the spread of the virus,countries have adopted various epidemic prevention and control measures,which has led to the failure to continue the upward trend of international service trade.The scale of trade has declined,and the structural characteristics of the global service trade network have also changed to a certain extent.Therefore,it is practical significance to understand the changes in the global service trade network in the context of COVID-19 and explore the mechanism and factors that affect the current service trade development.At the same time,it can also provide suggestions for China’s service trade development after the epidemic.This article is first based on the three levels of service trade networks between the existing countries(regions)in the WTO database from 2018-2020 to build a service trade network,and from the three levels of overall structural characteristics,individual structural characteristics and social structure characteristics.The structural changes in the service trade network before and after the outbreak of the epidemic and compared the relevant characteristics of countries(regions)along the “the Belt and Road”.Secondly,according to the research of existing literature,the impact mechanism of COVID-19 through different channels on service trade is sorted out to provide mechanism support for the variable selection and model analysis of the empirical parts of the post.Finally,use Exponential Random Graph Model(ERGM)to analysis the impact effect of the global and "the Belt and Road" service trade network.The research results show that: First,the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 caused the number of trade relations and trade quotas for service trade networks in 2020 to decline in the global and "the Belt and Road" range,and further exacerbated the problem of imbalance in service trade development;Second,COVID-19 has not changed the " Core-Periphery" overall pattern of the global service trade network in the short term.Eastern European countries and Western European countries in "the Belt and Road" are still at the core of the global service trade network,and China is currently in the "semi-periphery" position;Third,after the outbreak of COVID-19,the tightness of trade between countries(regions)around the world is significantly reduced,and the service trade connection between countries(regions)along the“the Belt and Road” is closer;Fourth,COVID-19 is inhibited on the global service trade network,the regional service trade with high diagnosis density and serious epidemic dissemination is even less active,but higher economic strength factors such as better medical standards,common language,non-borders,and signing service trade agreements can all be positive to promote the formation of global service trade networks in the context of COVID-19,while strict epidemic prevention policies have suppressed the service trade network.Based on the above conclusions,this article put forward the following policy suggestions: First,focus both of the epidemic prevention and trade development while providing preferential policies to the affected industry and enterprises.Second,strengthen service trade with countries(regions)along the “the Belt and Road”,learn the service trade experience of Eastern European countries in the core of the network,and help the non-core position countries(regions)to spend the epidemic difficulties together;Third,continue to support new service trade that develops against the trend under COVID-19,and actively participate in the formulation of the international rules of the new service trade;Fourth,take on the responsibility of the great country,actively promote the development of global service trade in the postepidemic era,improve the global service trade system.