The Influence Of Monetary Influence On Export Preference Network

From the trade war between China and the United States in 2018 to the global spread of COVID-19 in 2020 and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022,the international system has entered a period of accelerated evolution and profound adjustment,and the pattern of international trade has also changed.The commercialization of oil and gas to Russia and East Asia promoted by European and American countries rapidly pushed the global industrial chain to vertical and partial restructuring,and the global trade pattern showed obvious preference orientation.What underpins the rush to sell oil and gas to Russia and to East Asia?Why has Russia’s international trade suffered so much while our foreign trade still maintained a good growth trend? This is closely related to the status of a country’s currency in the international monetary system.Currency influence has a profound impact on international trade.Therefore,this paper discusses how currency influences the formation and evolution of global preference-oriented trade patterns.Specifically,this paper mainly studies the following three questions: First,what are the structural evolution characteristics of the global monetary pattern and the global trade export preference network? What is China’s position in the international trade map? What is the effect of currency influence on export preference network?Based on the perspective of complex network,combined with characteristic fact analysis and empirical analysis,this paper analyzes the structural characteristics of global monetary pattern and trade export preference network,and further explores how monetary influence influences the formation and evolution of trade export preference network from an empirical perspective.To provide research support on how to promote the development of China’s high-quality foreign trade and RMB internationalization.First,this paper uses bilateral trade data from 2000 to 2020 to build a trade export preference network.At the same time,based on daily exchange rate data,this paper constructs exchange rate linkage network and exchange rate spillover index respectively from two aspects of exchange rate linkage relationship and exchange rate spillover relationship as indicators to measure currency influence.Furthermore,based on the complex network analysis index,this paper makes a detailed analysis on the overall development of the global monetary pattern,the structural characteristics of the export preference network and the changes of China’s position in the export preference network.The results show that the global monetary structure presents the characteristics of “small world”,and after the 2008 financial crisis,the linkage between currencies is increasingly enhanced.In the trade export preference network,the macro structure of the network also presents an obvious “small world” feature,and there is also an obvious reciprocity and agglomeration.From the community analysis and individual analysis,it can be found that China’s position in the trade export preference network is constantly improving,and gradually becomes the core leader of the United States and Germany.Secondly,based on the analysis framework of index random graph,combined with currency network externality theory,exchange rate pass-through theory,optimal currency area theory and international currency competition theory,this paper expounds the influence mechanism of currency influence on trade export preference network from the three aspects of currency influence: external network embedding effect,Matthew effect and microstructure effect.This paper argues that currency influence promotes the establishment of export preference relationship between countries or regions by reducing exchange rate fluctuation risk and various explicit and hidden costs in the trade process,and the stronger currency influence is,the easier it is to establish export preference relationship with more economies in the network.Furthermore,the influence of monetary influence on the trade export preference network will also be reflected in the micro-structure of the network,promoting the emergence of reciprocal and agglomeration micro-trade patterns.Finally,based on the exponential random graph model(ERGM),this paper empirically examines the effect of monetary influence on the evolution of export preference network structure.The empirical results show that: first,at the level of external network embedding effect,the external embedding effect of exchange rate linkage network is positive,which indicates that currency influence can promote the formation of export preference network.Second,at the level of node attribute effect,the Matthew effect exists in both the exchange rate linkage network and the exchange rate spillover index,which indicates that the stronger the currency influence of a country or region is,the more likely it is to establish trade export preference relationship with more countries or regions.Thirdly,at the level of microstructure effect,monetary influence has a significant impact on micro-trade patterns in the network,which is specifically manifested as promoting the emergence of reciprocity and agglomeration model structures in the export preference network.In order to further promote the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade and realize the new development pattern of mutual promotion of China’s double cycle,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions on promoting the internationalization of RMB and regional economic cooperation based on the main research conclusions.