Research On The Impact Of Short-term International Capital On Liquidity Of Commercial Banks Under The Background Of Financial Opening

Financial supply-side reforms have promoted the gradual deepening of the financial market to domestic and foreign countries,providing institutional support for short-term international capital flows.Short-term international capital has the characteristics of strong volatility and easy change of flow direction,which may have a negative impact on the liquidity of commercial banks.Based on this,the paper starts from the background of financial opening,combs the current status of short-term international capital flows and commercial bank liquidity,constructs a model,and objectively analyzes the impact of short-term international capital flows on commercial bank liquidity,specifically divided into overall and regional impacts,differences in different asset size of commercial banks.Based on the differences in regional trade volume and the stratification of bank liquidity,corresponding policy recommendations are proposed to reasonably control the scale of short-term international capital flows and the liquidity level of commercial banks under the background of opening up,and provide decision-making reference for the improvement of the macro-prudential management framework.International capital flow theory,the third-generation currency crisis theory and the financial fragility squeeze hypothesis,etc.provide a theoretical basis for the impact of short-term international capital flows on the liquidity of commercial banks under the background of financial opening.The transmission mechanism of short-term international capital flows to the liquidity of commercial banks mainly plays a role through capital inflow channels under current accounts and capital and financial accounts.Financial opening began at the beginning of reform and opening up.After an gradual roll-out and a steady evolution in the post-crisis era,it is now leading a new pattern of opening to the outside world.Based on the two perspectives of the balance of payments and cross-border receipt and payment of bank valet,the changes in international capital flows have found that the double surplus of China 's balance of payments has disappeared.The current account maintains a small surplus,and the capital and financial accounts appear to have a combination of cis and reverse.The significant net reduction in other investment items(including short-term international capital)is the main cause of the deficit between China 's capital and financial accounts.Expectations of RMB depreciation against the US dollar have formed,economic growth and spreads between China and the US have narrowed,global investors have increased risk aversion,and domestic residents and companies have accelerated the allocation of overseas assets.These are the drivers of short-term international capital flows.China's commercial banks have followed the path of"growth period-mature period-survival of the fittest".The inter-bank deposit and loan market has regional liquidity barriers,and financial supply-side reforms have promoted commercial bank market liquidity stratification.The panel data FGLS estimation method is used to study the overall and regional impact of short-term international capital flows on the liquidity of commercial banks.The study found that,firstly,on the overall level,short-term international capital outflow has a negative impact on the liquidity of commercial banks,with an impact coefficient of 0.1045.Secondly,at the inter-provincial level,the impact coefficient of short-term international capital on the liquidity of commercial banks is 0.1139,indicating that due to the difference in regional trade volume,the impact of short-term international capital flow on the liquidity of commercial banks in different regions is different.Using mixed regression to study the impact of short-term international capital on the liquidity of commercial banks of different asset sizes,the analysis found that the liquidity of large,medium and small commercial banks has different sensitivity to short-term.international capital flows.Among them,the impact coefficient of short-term international capital on the liquidity of large commercial banks is 0.4118,and the coefficient of influence on the liquidity of small and medium-sized commercial banks is 0.0841.The liquidity of large commercial banks is more sensitive to short-term international capital flows.For empirical analysis,it is crucial to prevent the negative impact of short-term international capital flows on the liquidity of commercial banks in the context of financial opening.We should actively and steadily promote financial opening;strengthen short-term international capital flow management;optimize commercial bank liquidity management strategies,and establish a macro-prudential regulatory framework,with a view to preventing and mitigating commercial bank liquidity risks.