A Study On Catastrophe Risk Of Agricultural Insuranceunder Extreme Climate Based On SD Model

Extreme weather and climate events occur frequently with the global warming.China's agricultural production has been in a complex and ever-changing climate disaster.In 2019,China released the annual “the No.1 Central Document” which proposed a new requirement for agricultural insurance to expand the product.The level of protection for agricultural insurance will be further enhanced in the future.As a result,China's agricultural insurance is very likely to face catastrophe risks.This article aims to evaluate and simulate the catastrophe risk of agricultural insurance under the extreme climate scenario in China by building a system dynamics model with agricultural insurance as the research subject.First,establishing three subsystems of Weather,Agricultural production and Insurance by analyzing the research purpose of agricultural insurance catastrophe risk.By studying the internal structure of the subsystem and the relationship between the subsystems,the variables are selected and the causations are decided,and then the system causality diagram is described.After that,construct a system dynamics model of agricultural catastrophe risk in extreme climate in China by Vensim PLE.After the rationality test of the model,the simulation of the catastrophe risk of China's agricultural insurance under extreme climatic conditions can be found.First,in the past 20 years,the problem of catastrophe risk in the agricultural insurance has not been highlighteddue to the low level of agricultural insurance protection in China.And there is no huge payment situation across the country.Second,with the improvement of the level of security,extreme climate risks,China's agricultural insurance claims will not meet the catastrophe standards when the extreme climate conditions is mild and frequently.However,when there is an extreme weather risk of 5 years and above,China's agricultural insurance will face catastrophe risk.Third,because extreme climate risks are sustainable,the sound operation of agricultural insurance is facing enormous challenges after suffering severe extreme climate risks.Finally,based on the SD model and empirical analysis results,this paper establishes an Extreme Climate Risk Index to represent the magnitude of agricultural insurance catastrophe risk in extreme weather conditions.