| Climate change refers to the average state change of climate over time,that is,the trend or dispersion has a statistically significant change.According to time,it is divided into long-term climate change,inter-annual climate change and extreme climate events.Greenhouse gas emission and other impact of human factors are considered to be main causes of climate change.In the 21 st century,extreme climate events such as flood,hail and drought occur frequently.Either responding to climate change or reducing greenhouse gas emission is a global responsibility.In the 1970 s,the international community began to make efforts to mitigate and respond to climate change.The Kyoto Protocol provides three ways for the developed countries to implement their obligations to respond to climate change: the Joint Implementation Mechanism,the Clean Development Mechanism and the Emissions Trading Mechanism.The Copenhagen Agreement defines the concept of “common emission reduction” and the mode of “bottom-up” emission reduction as the new mechanism of global climate governance.On one hand,the negotiation and implementation of the Paris Agreement transformed global climate governance from "compulsory reduction of greenhouse gas emission" to "lowcarbon competition and cooperation",on the other hand,the "bottom-up" climate governance model has been fixed and the new era of climate change governance began.As to international trade,protecting environment does not conflict with the goal of WTO or international trade objectives,and sustainable development of global economy is as important as protection of environment and resources.China has been paying special attention to responding to climate change,formulateing policies based on the principle of mitigation and adaptation and leading international cooperation in dealing with global climate change.The impact of climate change in China is reflected in the fluctuation of climate factors and the outbreak of extreme climate events.Temperature,precipitation,sunshine and air humidity are generally in an upward trend.The increase in temperature and precipitation in the Eastern Zone is slightly higher than that in the Central Zone and the Western Zone.The sunshine in the Western Zone increases faster than that in the Eastern Zone and the Central Zone.The air humidity in the Central Zone rises faster than that in the Eastern Zone and the Western Zone.For extreme climate events,the affected area and the disaster area caused by drought account for about half of the total affected area and the disaster area;and the affected area and the disaster area caused by flood account for about a quarter of the total affected area and the disaster area.In the new era,responding to climate change of China should be guided by the Xi Jinping's Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.The path of low-carbon economic development that is compatible with the goal of responding to global climate change should be achieved,while the goal of building a powerful socialist modernization country should be achieved as well,and China's responsibility for the common interests of all mankind in the process of socialist modernization should be demonstrated.Agriculture is an important part of national economy and a powerful source to promote economy development in China.Problems such as expanding fluctuation and deficit exist in agricultural products export.Other problems such as limited Asia market and sole domestic source should be solved.The impact mechanism of climate change on agricultural products export can be divided into two categories.They are short-term impact and long-term impact.The short-term impact,which is on the supply side of agricultural products export,is related to agricultural weakness,the impact of climate change on the supply of agricultural products export and the increased costs in responding to climate change.Agricultural weakness is mainly based on natural risk and market risk.Natural risk means that technology can only relieve the severe consequences of natural disasters.Market risk includes the following five aspects: First,agricultural products are lack of supply elasticity,so the price signal cannot adjust the current supply of agricultural products.Second,agricultural products are lack of demand elasticity,so the price mechanism cannot regulate the demand for agricultural products effectively.Third,agricultural products are lack of income elasticity,so the expenditure proportion of agricultural products in residents' income decreases gradually.Fourth,the factor rate of return in agriculture is lower than that of other industries,which leads to the loss of resources.Fifth,the agricultural costs cannot be fully recovered from the price of agricultural products as agricultural infrastructure and agricultural contribution to the environment are external to economy.The impact of climate change on the export supply of agricultural products is reflected by reallocating climate resources,changing production rules,and affecting production potential.The increased agricultural costs of responding to climate change can be divided into direct cost,indirect cost,and opportunity cost.Direct cost refers to the additional costs of agricultural materials,mechanical energy and employment if low-carbon technology is applied.Indirect cost refers to the adjusted factor costs if low-carbon technology is applied.Opportunity cost refers to decreased income as more time would be occupied if low-carbon technology is applied The long-term impact caused by climate change is related to competitiveness and trade barriers of agricultural products.Competitiveness of agricultural products is influenced as comparative advantage is altered by not only reallocated endowment of climate resources but also the disadvantage of climate disasters,while competitiveness of export country is influenced as mechanism of factor transmission,related industries and national industry organization are altered.The economic effects of low-carbon trade barriers on agricultural products export are similar to that of tariffs.In this paper,trade value of various provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities from 2001 to 2018 is selected as the response variable.The characteristic variables are divided into four categories: economic resources,climate resources,climate disasters and agrochemicals.From the empirical results,each of economic resources,such as regional GDP,gross output of agriculture,added value of the first industry,crop planting area,etc.and agrochemicals,such as agricultural plastic films,pesticides and net fertilizers has a significant impact on the agricultural products export for the whole country,and the importance of these variables ranks within the top ten.Each of agrochemicals such as agricultural plastic films,pesticides and net fertilizers plays an important role in promoting agricultural products export but brings pressure because greenhouse gas emission is not conducive to climate-friendly agricultural construction.Compared with climate disasters,climate resources play greater roles in promoting agricultural products export,especially the role of precipitation,temperature and air humidity in summer.In order to reduce or eliminate the negative impact of climate change on agricultural products export,it is recommended to diversify risks via climate index insurance.Among various factors affecting agricultural products export in the Eastern Zone,the gross output of agriculture,the added value of the first industry,the use of agricultural plastic films,the use of pesticides,and the total crop planting area rank top five in importance.This indicates that it is necessary to transform agricultural technology and to enhance the efficiency of agricultural resources.In terms of climate resources,spring rainfall,air humidity,and sunshine are significantly negative.Disasters such as flood and hail are also negative.Special attention should be paid to climate resources in spring and insurance is suggested to be employed to diversify risks of flood and hail.Economic resources and agrochemicals have great influence on agricultural products export in the Central Zone,and each impact of regional GDP,net fertilizers and freezing is significant.This indicates that it is necessary to prevent freezing in addition to more input of agricultural resources.The impact of agricultural diesel ranks first and is very significant while the impact of net fertilizers ranks the second and is in certain significance on agricultural products export.This indicates that investment of agricultural machinery and agricultural materials is very important for developing agricultural products export in the Western Zone.The autumn precipitation and the air humidity in summer are relatively high in importance ranking,and the impact of either is very significant.This reflects that the agricultural development is restricted by lack of water,and it is recommended to construct water conservancy facilities in the Western Zone.In conclusion,the impact of economic resources on agricultural products export is significant among the whole country,the Eastern Zone,the Central Zone and the Western Zone.The importance of climate resources on agricultural products export is closely followed.The impacts of climate factors on different types of agricultural products export are quite heterogeneous.The increase of summer temperature,winter sunshine and air humidity in spring is beneficial to tea export.However,the increase of summer sunshine and temperature in both autumn and winter is not conducive to tea export.The increase of summer temperature is beneficial to rice export,while the increase of air humidity in autumn is not conducive to rice exports.The increase of spring temperature and air humidity in summer is beneficial to the export of vegetable oil,but the increase of winter temperature is not conducive to the export of vegetable oil.Increased use of diesel and pesticides is conducive to the tea export,but brings more greenhouse gas.Reduced use of fertilizers is beneficial to tea export while brings less greenhouse gas.Increased use of agricultural plastic films is conducive to the export of vegetable oil,but not conducive to mitigating climate change.According to the results,this article proposes some countermeasures to promote agricultural products export: First,it is necessary to change the agricultural development model in order to deal with climate change.It is recommended to reduce greenhouse gas emission by extensive application of low-carbon agricultural technology and to deal with climate change via enhancing capability of meteorological disaster warning,improving agricultural meteorological disaster insurance system and optimizing the agricultural climate index insurance system.Second,it is necessary to broaden international cooperation in agriculture.It is recommended to standardize agricultural carbon trading mechanism in China via both enhancing international corporation in low-carbon agriculture and agricultural carbon trade and making full use of international low-carbon funds.Third,it is necessary to improve trade guarantee mechanism for agricultural products export.It is recommended to enhance the comparative advantage of low-carbon agricultural products via optimizing the industrial structure and developing low-carbon agriculture vigorously.In order to cope with low-carbon trade barriers,it is recommended to build certification systems for low-carbon agricultural products and carbon labeling. |
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