Research On Corporate Earning Forecast Based On Structured Portfolio Of Financial Index

Accounting information not only reflects the historical operating results but also reflects the fundamental information of companies,such as resource endowment and competitive barriers.These signals have a strong ability to predict future earnings of companies.In the operation and development of the company,research and development,advertising and investment are important economic activities to build competitive barriers from different dimensions.The financial indicators of the three categories of expenditure have a forward-looking prediction effect on the future earnings of the company.Taking a sample of A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2017,this paper divides companies into three categories: R&D-intensive,advertising-intensive and investment-intensive,using multiple regression models for empirical research.This paper explores the predictive effects of static and dynamic R&D,advertising and investment expenditure on future earnings growth and volatility,as well as analyzes the impact mechanism of "absolute ratio share" equity structure in China's capital market behind forecast results.Besides,this paper constructs the "F score" based on the structural combination of three types of financial indicators excess changes,and verifies the "F score" for the future earnings growth forecast.This paper finds that static R&D,advertising,and investment have a significant positive effect on current or future earnings growth.R&D will result in higher earnings volatility,while advertising and investment herald a solid future surplus.Based on different investment motives of the largest shareholder and the supervisory effect of small and medium shareholders,excessive R&D expenses will lead to higher-performing surplus growth,excessive advertising expenses will inhibit future earnings growth and bring higher surplus volatility,excessive investment spending will curb future earnings growth and reduce future earnings volatility.