Research On The Trade Effect Of China-russia Free Trade Area

This paper mainly uses the gravity model to analyze the economic factors that affect the bilateral trade between China and Russia,and makes a predictive analysis of the possible trade effects after the completion of the China-Russia Free Trade Area.Economic globalization and regional economic integration are two major trends in today's world economic development.Facing the new pattern of world economic development,regional economic development has gradually become the mainstream trend of economic cooperation among countries.The Chinese government has proposed the "Belt and Road" initiative,which aims to achieve mutual benefit and win-win through cooperation with the countries along the route,and seek new development models for the economic development of China and the countries along the route.China and Russia are neighbors to each other and their trade complementarities are strong.Both China and Russia are actively negotiating free trade agreements with other countries in the world.In this era,the Belt and Road Initiative and the Free Trade Area The combination of construction and the formation of a policy synergy have made the establishment of a China-Russia free trade area of strategic importance.Bilateral free trade zone cooperation will be another escalation of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation,forming a new Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation model,and promoting Sino-Russian trade to a larger scale.Based on data from 2008 to 2018,this article first analyzes the status of trade scale,trade structure,trade policy,and investment cooperation between China and Russia.Secondly,calculate the revealed comparative advantage index and trade complementarity index of China and Russia,and analyze the feasibility of building a China-Russia free trade area.Then,the gravity model is used to analyze the influencing factors of Sino-Russian trade,and it is pointed out that the establishment of the Sino-Russian Free Trade Area will have trade effects and promote bilateral trade between China and Russia.Finally,it summarizes the main conclusions of this article and puts forward specific suggestions for building a China-Russia free trade area.The study found that the China-Russia Free Trade Area is currently in its infancy and the two governments have completed the preliminary construction.By calculating the revealed comparative advantage index and the trade complementarity index,itis concluded that Sino-Russian trade is highly complementary,and the establishment of the Sino-Russian Free Trade Area is highly feasible;empirical analysis is performed by using a trade gravity model It is concluded that the main factors affecting the bilateral trade between China and Russia are the gross domestic product of the two countries and the geographical distance between the two countries.In addition,the introduction of the "Belt and Road" policy and the signing of free trade agreements will also affect China and Russia The bilateral trade between the two countries has an impact,which shows that the establishment of the China-Russia Free Trade Area will have a trade-creation effect on Sino-Russian bilateral trade.