Research On The Exchange Rate Risk Avoidance Of My Country's Foreign Trade Enterprises Under The Sino-US Trade Friction

On December 11,2001,China joined the world trade organization.Since then,the volume of foreign trade has continued to grow,and the trade with the United States has made a breakthrough,not only making the cooperation between China and the United States closer,but also improving the well-being of the two peoples.However,under the banner of "America first",the us government has bucked the trend of globalization,and the china-us trade has been shrouded in gloom.The trade dispute between China and the United States reached its peak in March 2018 when the U.S.government imposed tariffs on Chinese imports in defiance of Chinese opposition.Since the intensification of trade friction between China and the United States,the fluctuation range of RMB exchange rate has increased,especially affecting China's foreign trade enterprises.In order to reduce the unnecessary losses caused by the exchange rate fluctuations to foreign trade enterprises,it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and discussion on the exchange rate risks of foreign trade enterprises in China under the Sino-US trade friction,so as to find out positive countermeasures.This article from the trade friction,exchange rate risk,VaR model and the basic concept of the family of GARCH model according to identify risks,risk measure,the thinking of risk aversion,research methods of comprehensive application of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis,first of all,the causes of Sino-US trade friction and its influence on the foreign trade enterprise for qualitative analysis.Secondly,by analyzing the basic situation of RMB exchange rate fluctuation and combing the current situation of foreign trade enterprises' exchange rate risk management,the exchange rate risk is identified.After building the VaR-GARCH model to empirical analysis of the yuan against the dollar foreign exchange risk.Finally,some countermeasures are put forward to deal with the foreign exchange risk caused by sino-american trade friction.It is found that since 2018,with the continuous upgrading of trade frictionsbetween China and the United States,the fluctuation range of the RMB exchange rate against the us dollar has further expanded,and the exchange rate flexibility has also increased.However,in China's unique economic system and imperfect financial market,Chinese foreign trade enterprises passively use the original risk aversion tools,lack of sufficient risk prevention awareness and risk management professionals,and the risk management system is not sound,further expand the foreign exchange risk exposure.Therefore,foreign trade enterprises must find effective risk management methods and improve the risk management system,and risk measurement is undoubtedly the core part of the risk management system.Under the current situation,the GARCH(1,1)-T model with a confidence level of 99% should be used to measure exchange rate risk.At the same time,foreign trade enterprises should accelerate the construction of the belt and road,open up emerging markets,enhance product competitiveness and strengthen independent innovation.Banks can provide credit support for foreign trade companies and establish a risk-sharing model.In addition,the government should accelerate the process of RMB internationalization,promote the upgrading of industrial structure,relax China's foreign exchange policy,and increase support for foreign trade enterprises.