Research On Farmers’ Welfare Effect Of Grain Production Technology Progress

Since the reform and opening up,China’s economy has grown rapidly,and the average annual growth rate of GDP has reached 9.4%.Urbanization is also at an accelerated stage of development.In 2017,the urbanization rate reached 58.52%.At the same time,China’s grain production has also grown steadily.China’s total grain output increased from 469,469.5 kiloton in 2004 to 661,607.2 kiloton in 2017,an increase of 40.93%(except for a slight decline in 2016).The continued increase in total food production is due to the increase in the area planted with grain and the continuous increase in yields.The area planted with grain in China increased from 101,606.03 thousand hectares in 2004 to 117,989.06 thousand hectares in 2017,an increase of 16.12%.The grain yield increased from 4,246.49 kg/ha in 2004 to 5,607.36 kg/ha in 2017,an increase of 21.36%.The increase in grain yields reflects the continuous improvement of China’s grain production technology.In the process of urbanization,the rural labor force has been continuously transferred to urban and non-agricultural industries,and the area of cultivated land has continued to decrease,making the advancement of grain production technology particularly important in the process of realizing food security in China.Although relying on technological advancement is an inevitable way to achieve grain production and rural modernization,while technological progress can increase the total grain output,food prices may fall due to lack of flexibility in food demand,making welfare between producers and consumers.Uneven distribution,so as to affect farmers’ enthusiasm for growing grain,poses challenges to food security.Since 2004,China has gradually abolished agricultural taxes and implemented a direct food subsidy policy,which is a major institutional reform in the field of food production.According to the “National Medium and Long-Term Planning Outline for Food Security(2008-2020)”,the country is divided into three major regions: the main grain production area,the main sales area,and the production and sales balance area.Therefore,this paper uses panel data of two stages and three regions in 1985-2003 and 2004-2017 to measure the welfare effects of farmers in grain production technology progress,and analyze the changes in farmers’ welfare and their regional differences at different stages.In order to ensure the stability of grain production and achieve a "tight balance between supply and demand",we propose targeted policy recommendations.First of all,using the data envelopment method(DEA)to measure the progress rate of grain production technology,it is found that the level of China’s grain production technology is on the rise,especially since 2004,the rate of technological progress has accelerated.Among them,the technological progress rate of the main producing areas increased faster,followed by the production and sales balance area and the main sales area,indicating that the grain direct subsidy policy has obvious incentive effect on grain production.Then,using the OLS regression model to estimate the supply and demand elasticity of the grain market,it is found that the advancement of grain production technology has improved the production capacity of grain,thereby increasing the supply elasticity of the three regions.At the same time,it also increased the demand elasticity of the main producing areas and the production and sales balance area,but reduced the demand elasticity of the main sales area.This is due to advances in food production technology,increased food supply,improved food quality,and thus increased demand elasticity;and for higher-income outlets,choosing better food instead of food,thus reducing food Demand elasticity.Finally,the peasant welfare effect model of grain production technology advancement is used to measure changes in farmers’ welfare before and after technological advancement in the three regions.Technological advances in food production have improved the total social welfare of the three regions,but the improvement in welfare has been unevenly distributed among different entities,mainly shared by consumers,and is not conducive to the improvement of farmers’ welfare.There are big differences between the three regions.Among them,the welfare effect of farmers in the main production areas is the lowest,followed by the production and sales balance area,and the highest in the main sales area.This is mainly due to the different grain yields in the three regions,the higher the grain output,the greater the impact of technological advances in food production on the welfare of farmers,and the lower the welfare effect.Therefore,this paper combines the actual situation of the three regions,from optimizing the subsidy mode,increasing investment in scientific research and reforming the grain market circulation system,to propose targeted policy recommendations,to improve the welfare of farmers,ensure the stability of grain production,and achieve a tight balance between supply and demand.