Analysis On The Change Of Performance Forecast Of Listed Companies In China

Since its announcement in 1998,the performance forecast system has played an important role in alleviating the degree of information asymmetry between investors and listed companies,reducing market fluctuations,and improving market transparency.However,in recent years,with the increasing complexity of China's securities market and the internal and external environment of companies,the phenomenon of "face-changing" in performance announcements of listed companies has frequently been staged,which not only damages the rights of investors,but also reduces the effectiveness of performance announcements,and has a reputation for the company.And the seriousness of the system have brought shocks,and are not conducive to the healthy and stable development of China's capital market.Therefore,it is necessary and urgent to study the impact and hidden reasons behind the "change of face" phenomenon in performance forecast,and then propose related solutions to ensure the effectiveness of the performance system.In this article,we take the case of the “Face Change” event of Ophelia's 2018 annual performance forecast as an example,and conduct a deep analysis of the impact of the event itself and its causes through the literature research method and case study method,and summarize and summarize this event on the capital market,corporate investors and The negative impact caused by the image of a listed company is based on the internal and external aspects of the company and the system itself to find the underlying reasons behind the "face change",with a view to inspiring company management as a comprehensive summary of the performance forecast mechanism.First,it defines the related concepts of performance forecast,analyzes the information asymmetry theory,signal transmission theory,and principal-agent theory involved in the study.At the same time,it also elaborates the development of China's performance forecast system and current regulations,and lays the foundation for subsequent research.Secondly,I reviewed the process of the “Face Change” incident in the performance forecast of Ophelia.In the company's 2018 third quarter report and the next year 'sperformance report,it was shown that the company would make a substantial profit this year,but in the subsequent annual report,it turned from profit to loss.The impact of this incident is multi-faceted: first,it caused the company's stock price to fall sharply,and the immediate interests of investors were severely damaged;second,the company was punished by market supervision authorities,which adversely affected the company's image;third,it caused capital Market stability is impacted.Thirdly,based on the internal and external levels of the company,the reasons for the "change of face" in performance forecasting are studied.After combining the characteristics of China's performance forecasting system and related theoretical foundations,a multi-angle analysis is conducted to discover the company's internal governance,equity structure,and industry market risk characteristics.And the performance forecast system itself are factors that cause the company's performance forecast to change its face.Finally,after analyzing the major impacts and reasons of the “change face” of the performance forecast of Ophelia,the relevant suggestions on regulating the accuracy of the performance forecast of listed companies at the company and system supervision levels are made,and the system is improved at the system level.The content of the disclosure and the increase in penalties for the "change of face" phenomenon in the performance forecast,for the company,it is necessary to optimize the product structure,improve the company's internal control,improve financial capabilities,and increase risk awareness.The innovation of this article is based on the industry,market and era background of the case company,combined with the internal and external characteristics of the company,summarizes the characteristics of the performance forecast system itself,and analyzes the active and passive factors that cause the company's performance forecast to change its face on a two-dimensional level It can then make targeted suggestions to listed companies,add diversified research cases for the improvement of performance forecasting mechanism,and hope to contribute to the healthy development of China's capital market.