Research On Managerial Ownership And The Quality Of Performance Forecast

In recent years,China's financial information fraud and other information disclosure problems are common.The market and investment value of a company are closely related to the news disclosed by a company,and performance prediction is an important part of these information.Performance forecasts can help outside investors know more about the company,reduce information asymmetry inside and outside,and play a great role in protecting investors' interests.However,once the management conceals self-interest for self-interest and manipulated performance previews,it is likely to lead to low quality performance forecasts.In this case,information asymmetry deepens.Since managerial ownership can effectively solve the principal-agent problem,it is one of the focus of academic concern that the management of holding shares will increase the quality of performance forecast if the reduction of self-interest behavior will lead to the improvement of performance forecast quality.Firstly,the paper classifies and summarizes the literature,summarizes the research differences between domestic and overseas,and through theoretical analysis,this paper selects the 2012-2016 year performance forecast data of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock A shares for the empirical analysis,and will predict the timeliness of the quality from the time,the form and the preview.The accuracy of the three directions was measured.Through the ordered logit multiple regression analysis,the empirical study on the effect of managerial ownership on the quality of performance preview and the specific correlation.The empirical results show that there are significant differences between the management level Holding Company's forecast quality in terms of timeliness,the particularity and accuracy of the forecast form.In order to understand the detailed relationship between the two,the two square item of the managerial ownership ratio is introduced as the independent variable.The over regression analysis shows that there is an obvious inverted U relationship between the proportion of managerial ownership and the concreteness and accuracy in the form of preview,and5 there is a U relationship with timeliness,which is to ensure the realization of accuracy and sacrifice the timeliness.Finally,according to the results of previous analysis,relevant countermeasures are put forward to solve the problem of quality prediction.