Research On The Cross-regional Expansion Risk Of City Commercial Banks In Hebei Province

At present,the world economy has entered a period of stable recovery,the Chinese economy has entered a "new normal",economic growth has slowed,competition between financial institutions has become increasingly fierce,and the development of the banking industry has also entered a critical period of change.Urban commercial banks As an important part of the banking industry,its development also faces major challenges.However,as the downward pressure on the economy has increased in recent years,the risks of urban commercial banks have become increasingly exposed.Therefore,under this circumstance,this paper analyzes the risk of cross-regional expansion of the city commercial banks in Hebei Province.First,by defining the concept of cross-regional expansion and risks of city commercial banks,it is pointed out that this article mainly studies the risks of setting up branches for cross-regional expansion and the possibility of economic loss.Then analyze the required theories,theories mainly include economies of scale theory,financial risk theory and principal-agent theory.According to these theories,the impact of cross-regional expansion of urban commercial banks on risk is analyzed,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following.Immediately afterwards,the status quo of cross-regional expansion of city commercial banks in Hebei Province.and the status quo of risk after cross-regional expansion were described and analyzed.It was believed that there were problems such as unclear development direction and diminishing economies of scale in the development process of city commercial banks in Hebei Province.Secondly,based on the previous theoretical analysis and development status and risks,this paper selects 11 city commercial banks in Hebei Province as sample banks,and uses the data from 2013 to 2018 to construct a panel data model of risk for cross-regional expansion.On this basis comprehensively consider the two factors of individual and time,and conduct an empirical analysis on it in terms of individual effect and time effect.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: First,the number of off-site branches of city commercial bank inHebei Province has no significant effect on the non-performing loan rate,that is,the effect of cross-regional expansion on risk is not significant.Through analysis,this paper believes that it may be caused by the selected sample period being too short,or it may be due to the cross-regional expansion of the Hebei Province city commercial bank mainly in the province,so its effect on risk is not significant.Secondly,the asset size and the non-performing loan ratio are significantly negatively correlated,which means that the risk will be reduced as the asset size increases;the deposit-loan ratio and the non-performing loan ratio are negatively correlated in the model of cross-region expansion;The GDP of the city commercial bank headquarters has a negative correlation with risk.Finally,based on the above circumstances,from adjusting the development direction to prevent cross-regional expansion risks,based on the local economy to prevent cross-regional expansion risks,improve risk control mechanisms to control cross-regional expansion risks,and realize technological innovation to prevent cross-regional expansion risks.Various aspects put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development of city commercial banks in Hebei Province.