Study On The Influence Mechanism Of Banker Sentiment On Economic Cycle Fluctuation

The impact of market sentiment on macroeconomic fluctuations is a hot topic that has attracted more and more attention in recent years.The outbreak of the financial tsunami in 2008 highlighted the destructive power and influence of market irrational factors.In the past,a large number of studies have drawn the research conclusions that market sentiment affects macroeconomic variables from different perspectives,but most of them are based on the emotional changes of investors in the securities market and participants in the real estate market,and few scholars take bankers,the main decision-makers of commercial banks,as the main body of emotional research.Currently,China's financial market is still dominated by commercial banks,which is quite different from the developed capital markets in Europe and the United States and other countries.As the largest and most extensive market participants,commercial banks occupy an absolutely dominant position in the financing market through various forms of bank credit activities.The sentiment of bankers is closely related to the business direction,decision-making style and lending intention of commercial banks.It can affect the macroeconomic fluctuations by affecting the credit scale,that is,the high sentiment of bankers will promote the prosperity of the economic cycle,otherwise it will cause the macroeconomic recession.This paper selects banker sentiment as the starting point,selects bankers' macroeconomic confidence index,an exponential indicator that can represent the trend of bankers' confidence,and extracts the irrational part irrelevant to fundamental information to obtain the proxy variable of banker sentiment.Under the theoretical framework that banker sentiment has a positive influence on the fluctuation of economic cycle,the mechanism of its influence is discussed.This paper holds that the credit transmission pathway in the monetary policy transmission can also play the role of intermediary bridge in the process of the banker sentiment transmission to the macro economy.The easing and tightening of monetary policy reflect the state's prediction and regulation of the macroeconomic situation,which can be regarded as a kind of "national sentiment" or "policy sentiment".Compared with the banker sentiment,they all have the characteristics of being primary,conductive and inseparable from the main bank.Therefore,this paper uses the theoretical achievements related to the traditional monetary policy transmission mechanism for reference in the discussion of banker sentiment transmission path,and focus on the past research on bank credit mostly confined to the said bank credit to bank loans,however,with the expansion of bank credit business scope and business in the form of innovation,and the market demand and the evolution of the regulatory policy,in addition to traditional loans,shadow banking has become an important part of bank credit that cannot be ignored.Compared with traditional loans,which are subject to regulatory constraints,shadow banking,with its roots in the banking system but outside regulation and more flexible forms,is more likely to be affected by the bank sentiment.In this paper,it is proposed that two main hypotheses,traditional loans and shadow banking,play a mediating role in the process of banker sentiment influencing economic cycle fluctuation.In the empirical part,this paper selects the first quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2018 as sample range,tries to introduce the mediating effect test model commonly used in social science research.The main explanatory variable was banker sentiment,the fluctuation of economic cycle was taken as the explained variable,and the two parts of bank credit,traditional loan and shadow banking,were taken as the intermediary variables,making an empirical test of the theoretical hypothesis of the mechanism of the influence of banker sentiment on the economic cycle.Respectively through the test of traditional renminbi loans and shadow banking credit form in banker sentiment affect the intermediary effect of significance in the process of the economic cycle,confirmed this conclusion: The change of banker sentiment can have a positive effect on the fluctuation of economic cycle through the bank credit channel,and in this process,the intermediary is not the traditional loan,but the shadow bank.The results of robustness test of transforming the extraction method of emotion variables and avoiding data processing errors provide evidence for the robustness ofthe model.In addition,by empirical analysis of the possible reasons for the insignificance of the mediating effect of traditional loans,this paper holds that the traditional loans in bank credit can only be used as the conveyors of policy sentiment,which is subject to the strict supervision of monetary policy and other national policies,while there is little room for the irrational emotional fluctuations of bankers themselves.Finally,by means of correlation test and new trend analysis,the possible endogenous problem between on-balance sheet loans and off-balance sheet shadow banks is eliminated to further consolidate and support the conclusion of this paper.