Shadow Bank And Liquidity "Waterbed Effect" Analysis

The concept of shadow bank has been paid more and more attention since the introduction to the world,especially after the outbreak of the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008,the shadow bank has become the focus of researchers focus.With the rapid development of China's shadow banks,the government is in the use of monetary policy for macro-control when there are difficulties.It is very important to study whether the monetary policy will cause the change of the shadow bank's scale and the influence of the shadow bank on the monetary policy in the other hand,as well as the relationship between the traditional credit scale and the shadow bank scale.This paper mainly discusses the relationship between the monetary policy and the shadow bank scale.Under this influence,the scale of the shadow bank and the scale of traditional credit formed a relationship which is similar to the water bed of the shift in the state of economics,we call this phenomenon of liquidity "water bed effect".In addition to briefly introducing the"water bed effect",the definition and composition of the shadow bank,this paper also analyzes the influence of the scale of the shadow bank and the scale of the traditional credit under the influence of monetary policy.In this paper,we selected three indicators of monetary policy instruments,traditional credit scale and shadow bank scale.In particular,we selected three variables,such as RMB deposit reserve ratio,RMB loan and trust loan entrusted loan.,based on January 2007 to December,2016.The SVAR model was established on the basis of VAR model.Through the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition,it was proved that monetary policy promoted the expansion of shadow bank scale while restricting the scale of traditional credit.There is a tendency to shift,that is,"water bed effect",and this effect is more pronounced when monetary policy tighten.Based on the research conclusion,this paper also puts forward that the government need to increase the supervision of the shadow bank and the rational use of monetary policy to adjust the scale and structure of social financing;It is suggested that the monetary monitoring system of our country should be improved and to study the mutual influence between the shadow bank and the monetary policy in time so that the government can play a more effective and predictable role in the use of macro-control and reduce the extent that shadow banks make monetary policy weaken;and a series of policy recommendations.