The Empirical Research On The Impact Of Shadow Bank's Development On The Selection Of Monetary Policy's Intermediary Target

In 2011,The crisis of private lending in Wenzhou and other places broke out successively.all circles of the society focused on the development of the shadow bank in China.Shadow bank can create credit like traditional commercial bank in the background,which has a negative effect on the statistics of broad money supply money supply and the effectiveness of monetary policy intermediate objective.In recent years,More and more scholars doubted whether it is suitable for China to choose money supply as intermediate target,Monetary intermediary target is a key part of the monetary policy transmission process,which directly relates to whether the monetary policy can be effectively implemented.Therefore,Making a research on how the shadow bank's development influences the choice of monetary policy medium target in China has theoretical and realistic significance.At first, this paper builds the Poole's Analysis model with the element of shadow bank,and try to analyze how to select the monetary policy intermediary goal in the different developmental stage of the shadow bank.Then based on the practical situation in China,we analyze the effect exerted by shadow bank on the monetary policy medium target in detail.At last,by making two SVAR models(with and without shadow bank) with the monthly data(from January 2007 to December 2015)for empirical research,we try to make a contrastive analysis on how the shadow bank affects the choice of monetary policy medium target in China.The theoretical and empirical results showed that,When the shadow bank lies in the initial stage of development,The money supply still acts well as intermediate objective of monetary policy,but interest rate as the intermediate target is more suitable when the shadow bank rapidly runs into the mature stage.Although the development of the shadow bank expands the broad money supply in China,obscures the level of money supply,increases the difficulty of the central bank's control on money supply,and weakens the correlation between the money supply as the intermediary target and the ultimate goal of monetary policy,Shadow bank doesn't greatly influence our country's medium target-money supply,and the duration of the impact is not long for the preliminary developmental stage of shadow bank in China.However,with the rapid development of the shadow bank,the effectiveness ofmoney supply as the intermediate target becomes lower,while the validity of interest rate is enhanced.In view of the future development of the shadow bank in China and its influence on the selection of monetary policy intermediary target,this paper puts forward some suggestions on the regulation of shadow bank and adjustment of our country's monetary policy medium target.