Research On Risk And Risk Prevention Of Real Estate Credit Of Listed Commercial Banks In China

China’s real estate market started late,and the real estate economy began to develop rapidly only after the abolition of the housing distribution system and the introduction of the monetary policy of housing subsidies in 1998.The real estate industry is a capital intensive industry,and the capital it needs is closely related to the real estate credit business of listed commercial banks.With the rapid development of China’s real estate industry,credit default events happen frequently,real estate credit risk is more and more clearly displayed in front of us.Because of the close relationship between real estate credit and listed commercial banks,the risks generated by it will be transmitted to listed commercial banks quickly,which hinders the development of listed commercial banks.In this context,it is of great significance to find out the influencing factors of the real estate credit risk and manage the real estate credit risk,which will maintain the stability of the whole financial sector in China.This paper studies the real estate credit risk and its influencing factors from both theoretical and empirical aspects.In the aspect of theoretical research,firstly,the relevant literatures of real estate credit risk of commercial banks are sorted out,and the relevant theories of real estate credit risk are summarized,which lays a theoretical foundation for the following empirical analysis.In the third chapter,it elaborates the current situation of real estate credit of listed commercial banks in China,and summarizes the risks and causes of the risks in real estate credit of banks in China.The real estate credit risk factors analyzed in this paper include four factors: fluctuation of economic cycle,vulnerability to macro-control policies,default of borrowers and interest rate.Through comparative analysis,and then according to the specific situation,the fourth chapter conducts empirical research through OLS regression.Through the theoretical analysis of Chapter 3,this paper selected five independent variables as the influencing factors of real estate credit risk,namely,macroeconomic prosperity index,fixed asset investment price index,sales area of commercial housing,loan interest rate of more than five years and exchange rate of US dollar to RMB,and non-performing loan rate of real estate as the listed commercial banks’ housing.Real estate credit risk indicators.After data stationarity test and unit root test of time series data,a multivariate linear regression model is constructed,and the factors affecting the credit risk oflisted commercial banks in China are empirically analyzed by OLS method.The conclusion is that real estate credit risk is negatively correlated with macroeconomic consensus index,and positively correlated with fixed asset investment price index,exchange rate,benchmark interest rate of medium and long-term loans and sales area of commercial housing.Finally,on the basis of sufficient theoretical research and empirical research,the paper puts forward some suggestions to prevent real estate credit risk.The suggestions of risk management are mainly put forward from the government,regulatory agencies and listed commercial banks.At the government level,we should use a variety of macro policy tools to reduce the sales area of commercial housing and control credit risk;improve relevant real estate laws and regulations;do a good job in real estate industry supervision and pay attention to the continuity of the implementation of real estate policies.Regulators should strengthen the supervision of real estate credit and pay attention to the innovation of supervision methods.The preventive measures of listed commercial banks are divided into six parts.This paper expounds one by one that when the national macroeconomic consistent index,fixed asset investment price index,exchange rate,medium and long-term loan interest rate,and commercial housing sales area change,the bank can take suggestions to prevent credit risk and in the face of its own operational risk,listed commercial banks should take Management of real estate credit risk measures.