| The most important essence of core competitiveness of commercial Banks is the ability of risk management, and credit risk is the most major risk in the commercial banks. China’s real estate industry occupies an important position in the national economy from1990s, and means much to the economic stability and development. With the vigorous development of real estate industry, banks have been increasing capital investment of real estate industry; however, the percentage of bad loans in commercial bank has gone up. Therefore, banks have put estate industry in high-risk industry and lay preventing housing credit risk on agenda. The ability of credit risk management of real estate industry relates to the bank system stability and development of national economy.Real estate loans are divided to two kinds:real estate loans and individual loans, this paper focus the former. The type of real estate loans can be divided into two modes. One is project loans management mode. Firstly, the company mortgages the land access to the bank for loans, then puts the money funds into development and construction, at last repays the loan through the commodity house opens to booking receivables. Another kind is the company integrated credit form, mainly for liquidity loan. It pays more attention to enterprise’s whole reimbursement ability evaluation than the project itself. How to identify the real estate credit risk of commercial banks is the key of this paper.The overall thinking of this paper is that firstly, it is the summary and analysis of thesis theory of credit risk and real estate development loans (REDL for short) in China. Secondly, based on analyzing credit risk of real estate development loans of commercial bank design, joined the new index through a series of method to design new model, and design suited Z model for commercial Banks to control credit risk on real estate development loans. Finally it is the prospect of Z model, and this paper hope to provide new way to identify and evaluate the real estate credit risk of commercial banks.The structure arrangement of this paper is as follows:Chapter1:it mainly expounds the background and significance of the research, reviews related literatures of credit risk management of real estate development loan, and then illustrates the research idea of innovation points and potentials.Chapter2:it introduces concepts and theories of the real estate loans, lays the foundation for below. Firstly, this part illustrates the concept and classification of real estate loans of the business bank of our country, then clearly definite the concept of real estate loans credit risk and analyzes the characteristics of credit risk of real estate loans. Finally, this paper chooses the optimal model which based on the risk measurement model that listed in this chapter.Chapter3:it mainly analyzes the condition of credit risk management of real estate loans in the commercial banks of China. And this chapter makes tentative calculation of risk management which based on the national condition of China and classical Z model.Chapter4:firstly this paper selects Z model to do empirical research on credit risk of Chinese real estate development loans. Then the original Z model is tested than not suits Chinese situation, and design new Z model for banks to manage the credit risk of real estate industry.Chapter5:according to theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of credit risk of real estate development loan in Chinese commercial bank, it puts forward further research of Z model in identifying and evaluating credit risk of real estate in China.The innovations of this paper place mainly are embodied in the following two aspects:Firstly, Z model is revised according to China’s specific conditions. Due to the phenomenon of false financial statements has existed for long in China, the index of the cash flow, receivable and inventories are added according to the legal documents of Chinese finance index in real estate. And add some factors based on the legal documents, finally, it pass the empirical testing.Secondly, former researches of real estate loans are concentrated in the study of the projects. This paper loan choose the real estate enterprise itself as the point of view, comprehensively considerate the effect factors of the real estate development, innovatively summarizes and classifies the economic factors of loan and related theory. |
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