Research On The Influencing Factors Of Forecasting Accuracy

With the rapid development of China's securities industry,securities analysts play a more and more important role in the securities industry.They play an important role in the development of securities business and in the process of quality improvement.However,due to various reasons,the work and intelligence of securities analysts have been questioned by people.Unfair treatment,especially people's low recognition of the accuracy of forecasting information,is the inevitable result of the chaotic situation of the initial development of domestic securities industry.Scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on the accuracy of forecasting information of securities analysts and its influencing factors,and have deeply studied how to measure securities score.To some extent,the accuracy of analysts' prediction and the main influencing factors of forecasting deviation have brought solutions to the problem of forecasting information deviation in the practical field,improved the pricing mechanism of the securities market and improved the market efficiency.Firstly,this paper introduces the background and significance of the research,leads to the topic,and summarizes the domestic and foreign literature on the quality of forecasting information,forecasting accuracy and the influencing factors of accuracy of securities analysts;secondly,it introduces the related theories involved in the article,as well as China's securities analyst banks.The current situation of the industry in terms of industry scale,Analyst Quality and development stage;and then qualitatively summarizes the objective and subjective factors affecting the accuracy of forecasting of securities analysts in China,and summarizes the objective factors into the regulatory system of laws and regulations,listed companies,institutional investors,reputation,evaluation mechanism and securities scores.There are many subjective factors,such as analysts' experience and abilities,such as optimism,herding behavior and bold prediction.On this basis,the index system is set up,the correlation coefficients between variables are calculated and the correlation analysis is carried out.On this basis,the subject that affects the accuracy of forecasting of securities analysts in China is constructed.Finally,it summarizes the conclusions of the study,and puts forward policy recommendations on how to effectively improve the accuracy of the prediction of China's securities analysts.Through in-depth research,this paper finds that:(1)there are many objective factors that continue to affect the accuracy of our securities analysts' prediction.The accuracy of our securities analysts' previous and future prediction information,the size of the seller's organization where the securities analysts are located,and the accuracy of prediction are positively correlated.The seller There is also a positive correlation between research institutions and securities analysts' awards,and the analysts with good reputation have higher accuracy in their prediction;(2)the proportion of bold prediction of securities analysts in China is low,but the accuracy of prediction is higher than that of herd behavior;(3)bold prediction contains more information than trend.However,the market does not absorb more information than it tends to predict.Securities analysts tend to make bold predictions in order to win the approval of employers and investors.However,the digestion of the information contained in the two will be affected by the market environment.Under certain circumstances,there is no gap between the market and the information contained in them.