Statistical Measurement And Factors Analysis Of Rural Poverty Vulnerability In China

Poverty,as one of the three major problems of the world economy,has long restricted the development of human society.The traditional poverty intervention policies are all based on the post event situation.They think that only when the actual welfare level of families is below the poverty line can they be in poverty.This post event poverty indicator does not take into account the possibility that non poor families may also fall into poverty after suffering some risk impact in the future.Therefore,the world bank formally proposed the concept of poverty vulnerability in 2001 Poverty vulnerability can predict the probability of families falling into poverty in the future,and predict the dynamic poverty situation of families in advance,so as to make up for the lag of the static poverty line.It is of great significance to identify all kinds of vulnerable families and implement targeted Poverty Alleviation Policies.Based on the data of China’s household tracking survey(CFPS)in 2012,2014 and 2016,this paper estimates the expected value of per capita household expenditure using the logarithmic linear model and the feasibility least square method(FGLS),then measures the poverty vulnerability of Chinese households according to the expected vulnerability as expected vulnerability(VEP),and decomposes the poverty vulnerability.Finally,the influencing factors of poverty vulnerability are analyzed by using logistic regression model,and the dynamic decomposition of FGT index is applied to the dynamic decomposition of poverty vulnerability.The empirical conclusions are as follows:(1)The poverty situation of rural families in China has improved year by year,the incidence of long-term poverty has decreased year by year,the incidence of short-term poverty has increased year by year,and the negative impact caused by the increase of short-term poverty is less than the positive impact caused by the decrease of long-term poverty.(2)In terms of time,the poverty vulnerability of rural families in China is decreasing year by year;in terms of region,the poverty vulnerability is increasing from east to west;in terms of family vulnerability,the proportion of high vulnerable families is always greater than that of low vulnerable families.(3)The overall vulnerability rate of rural households fluctuates,and the incidence rate of poverty in rural households is always lower than that of poverty.The vulnerability value of low consumption average is always higher than that of high consumption fluctuation,but the high variance of consumption(HVC)replaces the low mean of consumption Consumption,"LMC)has gradually become the main reason for the vulnerability of rural families to poverty,among which the non-poverty,expected non-poverty but vulnerable families are the main components.(4)The incidence of long-term vulnerability and embrittlement of rural families in China gradually decreased,while the incidence of debittlement slightly increased.The decline of long-term vulnerability effect is the main reason for the reduction of poverty vulnerability of rural families.The effect of returning to embrittlement is always greater than the effect of de embrittlement,that is to say,without the reduction of long-term vulnerability effect,the vulnerability of rural families in China will continue to increase.(5)Family income,health level and human capital investment play a significant role in reducing the vulnerability of rural families.For families with insufficient resource endowment,simply increasing income or consumption can not fundamentally reduce the probability that the family will fall into poverty in the future;for poverty vulnerability caused by risk impact,it can be reduced by increasing family income or consumption.Finally,the innovation of this paper is to apply the dynamic decomposition of FGT index to the dynamic decomposition of poverty vulnerability,and decompose the change value of poverty vulnerability in the base period and the reporting period into debittlement effect,embrittlement effect and long-term vulnerability effect.Combined with the above three decomposition effects,this paper analyzes the incidence of rural household effects in China and the specific changes of rural household effects in different time and space.