Research On The Impact Of Fixed Asset Investment On Economic Fluctuation In Northeast China

After the reform and opening-up,in the process of economic system changing from planned economy to market economy,the economy of northeast China once fell into a dilemma because of the exhaustion of resources and the decline of traditional industries in old industrial cities,which is called "northeast phenomenon".In 2003,the state implemented the Northeast Area Revitalization Plan,and in the decade that followed,the economy of three northeastern provinces grew rapidly,at an average annual rate of more than 12 percent.However,since 2013,the northeast region economic growth rate is sluggish,the three provinces growth rate collectively fell below a reasonable range.In this context,we explore the impact of fixed asset investment on business cycle fluctuations,and analyze the specific impact mechanism of fixed asset investment on the current situation of weak expansion of business cycle fluctuations in northeast China,and to iron out the economic fluctuations put forward targeted countermeasures and suggestions to promote the full development of the northeast region,coordinated development is of great significance.Some progress has been made in the research on the impact of fixed asset investment on business cycle fluctuation.There are a lot of relevant theories on this issue,which lays a theoretical foundation for in-depth study of this issue,most of the existing literatures focus on the impact of national fixed asset investment on business cycle,and few of them focus on a single region,especially the northeast region.This paper attempts to build a research framework of fixed asset investment and economic cycle fluctuation,and use scientific analysis methods such as theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to explore the characteristics of cycle fluctuation in northeast China and predict the change trend of economic fluctuation curve.Through the linear combination analysis of investment rate and economic growth,thereasonable fixed asset investment rate range in northeast China is obtained.In a word,the research idea of this paper is: Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,it analyzes the specific impact mechanism of fixed asset investment on economic fluctuation in northeast China.Firstly,this paper briefly combs the basic concepts of economic cycle fluctuation and related cycle theories,and then divides the economic cycle of northeast China.Then,using the macroeconomic data since the reform and opening up,this paper makes a brief analysis of the current situation of fixed asset investment and economic development in northeast China,and tries to analyze the influence mechanism between these two variables After that,the paper selects the relevant data of northeast China to make empirical analysis and a series of relevant tests on the economic fluctuation of fixed asset investment.This paper holds that the economic fluctuation in northeast China after the reform and opening-up shows the trend of prolonging the fluctuation length,decreasing the fluctuation intensity and weakening the fluctuation expansion,and the fixed asset investment as a whole shows the trend of first rising slowly and then falling sharply.On this basis,the reasonable range of fixed asset investment in northeast China is predicted.The results show that the reasonable range of investment should be 24.6% to 40.6%,and the three provinces in northeast China should be 24.6% to 40.6%.At present,the investment rate of fixed assets is still higher than the reasonable investment range.Based on the above conclusions,this paper holds opinions that the northeast region should expand the scale of fixed asset investment,optimize the structure of fixed asset investment,and steadily increase the investment in traditional infrastructure construction in order to alleviate the impact of the COVID-19 on the economy,the local government should increase the investment in health care and education to provide long-term support for the economic development of northeast China.