Research On Optimal Tools For Monetary Policy And Macro Prudential Policy

After the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis broke out in 2007,it quickly spread around the world.By 2008,with the collapse of Lehman Brothers,the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis had evolved into an international financial crisis.In this crisis,the seemingly powerful financial institutions collapsed almost overnight,which made people soberly realize that the theoretical community has so far lacked a sufficiently accurate analytical framework to predict the occurrence of the financial crisis.Therefore,it is important that the financial regulatory authorities have a set of effective measures to effectively supervise financial institutions beforehand and usually to prevent financial imbalance as much as possible.After conducting the necessary theoretical analysis,this article constructs a DSGE model that includes five main sectors:household sector,entrepreneur sector,capital goods producer,financial intermediary and central bank..This paper uses parameter calibration to set the classic parameters of the DSGE literature.Five columns of data from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2019 are selected for Bayesian estimation of the dynamic parameters of the model,and the remaining parameters are calculated through steady-state solutions.The method is derived to estimate the parameters of the entire model.This paper finds that the model given a unit technology shock,real estate demand shock,monetary policy shock,and the loan value ratio shock of the household sector and the enterprise sector can better simulate the real economy.This article finds the following conclusions by comparing the impact of real estate demand shocks,monetary policy shocks,and household-to-enterprise sector loan-to-value shocks:First,the use of the loan-to-value ratio tool and the capital adequacy ratio tool in combination with the benchmark Taylor rule,the augment Taylor rule,and the use of the loan-to-value ratio tool and the capital adequacy ratio tool in conjunction with the augment Taylor rule are better in the face of three shocks than benchmark model and can reduce economic,financial fluctuations and maintain economic and financial stability.All three types of rules can reduce the fluctuation of output,consumption,house prices and asset prices or return to steady state levels more quickly.Among them,the use of two types of macro-prudential tools such as loan-to-value ratio and capital adequacy ratio in combination with the augment Taylor rule can significantly reduce the increase in output,consumption,and housing prices and the fluctuations in the face of corporate loan-to-value ratio shocks.Although the regulation and control of credit is not as good as the other two methods,it still achieves a certain degree of regulation and control;when faced with the impact of the value ratio of household loans,it can also significantly reduce the increase or decrease in output,consumption,asset price,and bank credit,and The magnitude of fluctuations,although the regulation and control of house price and investment are not as strong as the other two methods,but still achieved certain regulatory effects.Finally,when facing the impact of real estate demand shock,the rise in loan of commercial banks,consumption and output was significantly reduced.Although the regulation and control of asset price and investment are not as good as the other two matching methods,they have still achieved certain regulatory effects.Second,the combination of two types of macro-prudential tools,such as loan-to-value ratio and capital adequacy ratio,with the augment Taylor rule have a good control effect on reducing and controlling leverage.Under this combination,the impact of the loan-to-value ratio has significantly reduced the changes in macroeconomic variables such as output,consumption,and credit.Moreover,the leverage ratio of the household sector has significantly decreased,and the fluctuation rate of the leverage ratio of the corporate sector has decreased.Under the impact of real estate preferences,the leverage of the household sector is still significantly reduced.Based on the results of subsequent welfare analysis,the combination of the two types of macro-prudential tools such as loan-to-value ratio and capital adequacy ratio with the monetary policy rule of the extended Taylor rule is not only better than the other combination methods between the two.The effect of reducing and controlling leverage,and improving the welfare of the household sector.Third,the welfare analysis of this article also found that the three macro-prudential policy tools have significantly improved the overall welfare of the household sector and reduced welfare losses in the decision-making sector.And the loan-to-value ratio macro-prudential tool and the capital adequacy ratio tool are faced with the impact of household loans when they are matched with the expanded Taylor rule.The three types of shocks of corporate loan-to-value ratio shocks can significantly improve the welfare of the household sector.Under the shock of demand,the improvement of this welfare is only slightly smaller than that of the extended Taylor rule,and it still has obvious improvement effects.In addition,the two types of macro-prudential tools,such as loan-to-value ratio and capital adequacy ratio,can be used to reduce welfare losses more significantly when faced with corporate loan shocks and housing demand shocks.The improvement of welfare is only slightly smaller than that of the extended Taylor rule,and it still has obvious improvement effects.