Risk Aversion Decision Of Dual-channel Supply Chain Considering Lead Time Under Demand Disruption

This paper studies the risk aversion problem of a dual-channel supply chain with lead time under demand disruption.The optimal price,optimal lead time and the optimal production decision are given respectively before and after the disruption of demand in the centralized decision-making model and decentralized decision-making model,and the comparison is made before and after the demand disruption.Studies have shown that the optimal decision variance is liner with respect to the amount of the demand disruption.Furthermore,the influence of risk-averse coefficient on optimal price,optimal lead time and optimal production decision is discussed.In the centralized decision-making model,when market share is larger,the optimal lead time can be reduced by decreasing risk-averse coefficient.When the market share is small,the optimal lead time can be reduced by increasing risk-averse coefficient However,risk-averse coefficient is positively correlated with the optimal lead time in the decentralized decision-making model.In both models,the optimal price is inversely proportional to the risk aversion coefficient,while the optimal production is positively correlated with the risk aversion coefficient.When the demand are interrupted to a certain range,the optimal yield has certain robustness,but the interval range of the two decision models is different.Finally,numerical examples are used to analyze the influence of risk-averse coefficient and demand disruption on the optimal decision.