The Research On The Bubble Of The Real Estate Market In China

In recent years, Chinese real estate market is booming, especially after a slight drop in the international financial crisis in2008, the real estate industry boomed and developed in a high speed. The real estate industry is a large industry vital to national wellbeing and the people’s livelihood. It is a pillar industry in national economy. From "the No.10National notice" in2008, to the "the new No.10National notice" in2010, and then to the most severe housing market regulation in history—"the No.5National notice", it is easy to see the government’s attention to the real estate industry. It is clear that the real estate industry plays an important role in the development of the national economy. However, this effect may be a double-edged sword. The effect of the real estate industry to promote economic growth is self-evident, but its excessive boom will threaten economic stability, bring destructive financial risk, and even lead to paralysis of the entire financial system.In consideration of this double-edged sword role of the real estate industry, this paper first analyzed the effect of the real estate industry in national economic development. Its positive effect is mainly displayed in two aspects:real estate investment can effectively promote the growth of GDP and the real estate industry can promote the development of related industries. Then the paper compared the housing situation in China to that in Japan’s economic bubble period, the environment with the appreciation of RMB and the urbanization process and market expectations is very similar. Afterwards, this paper discussed the bubble of the real estate industry in China. Represented by China’s four municipalities directly under the central government, with the index analysis which is the traditional method in real estate bubble research and the innovative actor analysis, we obtained a common conclusion as follow:the real estate market bubble appeared in2010and there is no obvious bubble in other years; the overall market is operating smoothly. These two methods support each other. And next, the author made a simple comparison among the conclusions of the related literature about real estate bubble research in recent years. I found that we reached a similar conclusion in different ways. This proves the rationality of the method in this paper. Finally, combined with the conclusion of this paper, aiming at some problems existing in the current real estate market, I put forward the policy advice to the government.5figures,25forms,62references.