Study On The Scale And Risk Of China's Local Government Debt From The Perspective Of Fiscal Decentralization

Reasonable control of the scale and risk of local government debt is of great significance to ensure the sustainable and stable development of local economy.Fiscal decentralization,as an important part of China's financial system reform,is bound to have a certain internal relationship with the scale and risk of local government debt.Therefore,it is of great significance to analyze the volatility effect of local government debt scale and risk from the perspective of fiscal decentralization.In view of this,based on the analysis of fiscal decentralization,local government debt scale and local government debt risk,this paper comprehensively discusses the impact of fiscal decentralization on local government debt scale and fiscal decentralization on local government debt risk.Firstly,consult and study the literature about fiscal decentralization and local government debt scale and risk;secondly,measure the core variables of fiscal decentralization,local government debt scale and local government debt risk;secondly,theoretically analyze the impact mechanism of fiscal decentralization on local government debt scale and risk,and put forward relevant research hypotheses;thirdly,use the provincial panel from 2007 to 2016.Data construction econometric model is empirically tested.The research finds that:(1)fiscal decentralization significantly enlarges the scale and risk of local government debt.(2)The greater the degree of competition among local governments,the greater the scale and risk of government debt.(3)The higher the fiscal transparency,the more conducive to controlling the scale and risk of local government debt.(4)The effect of local government competition and fiscal transparency on the scale and risk of local government debt is regulated by fiscal decentralization,and this regulation is positive.Finally,in order to reasonably control the scale of local government debt and effectively prevent debt risks,we should pay attention to regional differences,rationally set fiscal decentralization;optimize government performance evaluation indicators,weaken competition among local governments;promote the reform of financial information management system,and enhance local fiscal transparency.