The Research On Credit Risk Of National Student Loan Based On Fuzzy Comprehensive Appraisement Method

The state-subsidized student loan, aiming to help students in high schools pay tuitions and living costs, uses financial means to support education and is becoming a significant way to assist the needy students working their way through school. However, due to the imperfect personal credit evaluation system, there are many cases regarding college students'breach of contract in practice and the default rate has increased to 20%, which makes the project of national student loan easy to get into trouble. The accumulation of default risk in state-subsidized student loan and the increase of non-performing loans in loan banks undermine the lending banks'enthusiasm to grant loans to college students. The targets of state-subsidized student loan are college students who have no jobs, no steady source of income, no credit records and no mortgaged personal property, so it is difficult for the loan banks to make credit evaluation on such loan targets.Taking into account the above points, this paper constructs a credit risk assessment model based on fuzzy comprehensive appraisement method, which is based on the research about individual credit risk assessment indexes made by renowned scholars and credit assessment institutions considering the default risk in the project of national student loan. The components of this assessment model are: a credit risk assessment index system for college students which is constructed by Delphi Method, a judging matrix which is constructed by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to scientifically reveal the weight of every index, and finally a fuzzy assessment matrix which is constructed by fuzzy comprehensive appraisement method in order to signal the degree of membership of comment set in different index level. Afterwards, there is an empirical test to the scientificalness and applicability of this assessment model using after-the-event sample data, and the test indicates: with the respect of scientificalness, both the unimproved and the improved model are rather scientific; whereas, with respect to applicability, the improved model does well especially in dealing with several sample data, thus more applicable in approving national student loan and in reducing the default risk. National student loan is a public-to-be institutional arrangement, involving the interests of governments, banks, schools, and individuals; therefore, the management of state-subsidized student loan cannot be executed by only one institution. It is only with the combined efforts of governments, banks, schools, and individuals can reduce the credit risk in the project of national student loan, thus helping this project get out trouble and unifying economic and policy aims.Due to the restriction of time and energy, this paper still has many shortcomings and deficiencies and the author believes the following point still deserves effort and research: although this paper constructs a college students credit risk assessment index system based on fuzzy comprehensive appraisement method and some improvements are made to the conventional fuzzy comprehensive appraisement method, its scientificalness and applicability still needs revision and amendment in practice.