Research On The Influence Of Economic Policy Uncertainty On The Export Duration Of Enterprises

Due to the changes in a series of international economic policies such as Brexit,Trump’s election as US president,and Sino-US trade war,the world’s anti-globalization trend is getting stronger and stronger,and trade protectionism is on the rise,which increase the uncertainty of economic policy.Economic policy uncertainty means that it is difficult for market participants to accurately predict whether the government will change its current economic policy for some important events and then take corresponding measures.As one of major trading nations,export always plays a very important role in the economic development of China,and it promotes the rapid development of China’s economy.At the same time,export also plays a key role in the process of developing a higher level of open economy.The government often uses economic policies to adjust the economic and social operations,thereby maintaining the steady development of China’s entire export trade.The government needs not only to establish new trade relations by means of policy encouragement,but also to maintain the established trade relations so as to achieve the overall stability and sustainable development of our trade.Thus,for enterprises,it is a significant issue that how to ensure the sustainability of export under the uncertain environment of economic policy.In order to explore the impact of economic policy’s uncertainty on export duration of enterprises,this paper systematically combs the literature on uncertainty of economic policy and duration of export of enterprises at home and abroad.The impact mechanism of economic policy uncertainty on export duration is analyzed,and variables and models are selected for empirical analysis,and select variables and set models for empirical analysis.Concretely,this paper is based on the matching data of economic policy uncertainty index developed by China Industrial Enterprise Database from 2000 to 2006,China Customs Import and Export Database and Baker,using the cloglog model to empirically study the impact of economic and trade policy uncertainty on the duration of export enterprises in China.The research shows that: nowadays,the uncertainty of national economic policy has a negative impact on the duration of China’s exports;Economic policy uncertainty has no significant impact on the export duration of private-owned enterprises,but it has obvious negative influence in the foreign-capital enterprises and private-owned corporations;The uncertainties of economic policies have a greater impact on the export duration of enterprises engaged in processing trade than those engaged in general trade.This paper shows the important policy implications for prolonging export duration and maintaining export stability of Chinese enterprises.