Research On The Effect Of Capacity And Demand Uncertainties On Supply Chain Inventory Decision And Profit

With the acceleration of economic globalization and the rapid development of science and technology,the competition among enterprises has also changed from pure product competition to competition among supply chains.The supply chain of product supply,especially the supply chain of technology-intensive products,often faces not only the uncertainty of demand,but also the uncertainty of capacity due to factors such as technical difficulty and long construction period.Faced with the dual uncertainty of capacity and demand and a highly competitive market environment,how companies can decide their own ordering strategies to maximize expected profits;what kind of contract between upstream and downstream companies can make supply chain coordination;market demand and capacity uncertainty How it will affect corporate decision-making and profit has important theoretical and practical significance.Most of the existing researches are based on the uncertainty of market demand,and the market demand uncertainty problem is studied.The decision-making and supply chain game problems with limited capacity(capacity constraint),capacity and demand,and the uncertainty of capacity and demand are less studied.The impact of the supply chain.In view of the shortcomings of existing research,the game theory method is used to establish a game model of supply chain concentration and decentralized system under the uncertainty of production capacity and demand.The productivity and demand uncertainty are studied by citing the mean value change transformation related to probability distribution in risk management.Supply chain system inventory decisions and the impact of profits.Specifically,the following work was carried out:Firstly,the definition and random monotony of the mean-holding transformation are given,and its relationship with the traditional stochastic dominance is described,and applied to the demand-determined supply chain centralized system(reporting problem)under the condition of limited capacity(capacity constraint).How does the capacity constraint affect the decision-making and profitability of a system with uncertain demand? Secondly,the mean value change transformation is applied to the problem of double uncertainty in the demand and production,and the influence of demand and capacity uncertainty on the inventory decision and profit of the centralized supply system is obtained.Thirdly,the paperboy model with uncertain capacity and demand is extended to the supply chain decentralized system,and the supply chain coordination model under the uncertainty of capacity and demand is established,and the coordination contract based on the shortage of production capacity and demand is proposed.Based on the mean-holding transformation,study the impact of capacity and demand uncertainty on supply chain member ordering strategies and supply chain member profits.Fourth,establish the Steinberg dynamic game model of the supply chain decentralized system under the uncertainty of production capacity and demand,and compare the dynamic and static game results.The study found that the optimal order quantity is related to the uncertainty of demand,and has nothing to do with the uncertainty of capacity;the existence of capacity constraints does not change the fact that demand uncertainty has a negative impact on centralized systems;the uncertainty of production capacity produces the supply of low quality products.In response to the negative impact of capacity uncertainty,in addition to taking measures to reduce production uncertainty,improving product quality is also a way The optimal profit of the chain centralized system has a negative impact;the static game contract based on the out-of-stock subsidy is superior to the dynamic game.The research expands the application of classic stochastic dominance in the study of supply and demand uncertain inventory systems,provides decision-making framework for enterprises facing demand and capacity uncertainty,and has great enlightenment and help to decision makers’ production and operation.