Determination Of Winter Wheat Insurance Rate In Jiangsu Province Based On Weather Index Insurance

Agriculture,as the cornerstone industry of the national economy,also has a high production risk.Agricultural insurance plays a key role in avoiding risks and guaranteeing farmers' income.The emergence of new agricultural insurance,such as index insurance,makes up for the shortcomings of traditional agricultural insurance,such as moral hazard,high management cost and easy adverse selection.For this new type of agricultural risk management tools,weather index insurance has a stronger role in avoiding risks and dispersing risks by studying the correlation between meteorological data and the yield series of agricultural products and designing corresponding insurance contracts based on Meteorological index.On the basis of concurrent theoretical research and practical demonstration,this paper studies the weather index insurance of Winter Wheat under the guidance of domestic and foreign scholars' research results and agricultural risk management theory.In this paper,winter wheat in Jiangsu Province is selected as the main research object,and the insurance premium rate of weather index is determined by using panel data of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province.Therefore,the focus of this paper is to apply weather index insurance to the determination of winter wheat rates in Jiangsu Province.The structure of this paper is as follows: Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 mainly introduce the research progress at home and abroad as well as the basic theoretical knowledge of weather index insurance pricing.In the third chapter,considering many meteorological factors such as annual precipitation,annual average temperature,annual sunshine time and so on,the correlation between winter wheat and weather factors is studied.On the basis of calculating meteorological yield of Winter Wheat by HP filter method,the meteorological yield model of winter wheat is established by multiple linear regression method,and the meteorological index of winter wheat in Jiangsu Province is fitted by multi-meteorological factors,and then based on linear model data pairs.Thirteen cities in Jiangsu Province use the parameter method to determine the pure premium rate.Chapter IV broadens the thinking on the basis of Chapter III,uses SJC-Copula function to study the non-linear relationship between the meteorological yield of Winter Wheat inJiangsu Province and the weather factors,uses conditional expectation method to solve the expected yield under certain weather conditions,and finally uses the non-linear model to determine the pure insurance premium rate of thirteen cities in Jiangsu Province,and compares with the results of Chapter III.The fifth chapter summarizes the results of pure rate determination and gives some policy recommendations for the development of China's agricultural weather insurance.