A Study On The Insurance Rate Of The Weather Index Of Rapes In Jiangsu Province

Rapeseed is one of the main oil crops in China,and ensuring rapeseed production is essential for the stable operation of the national economy and the security of national oilseeds.Jiangsu Province is one of the top ten rapeseed producing areas in China and rapeseed is also a crucial oil crop in the province.However,rapeseed production is susceptible to natural disasters and often faces significant catastrophic risks,which cannot be fully addressed by market-based commercial insurance.Since the agricultural insurance pilot work began in China in 2007,Jiangsu Province has been one of the six pilot provinces.In the same year,basic coverage of agricultural insurance pilot schemes included rice,wheat,corn,and rapeseed.In 2020,Jiangsu agricultural insurance expanded coverage,added varieties,and improved standards to promote high-quality development of agricultural insurance.The traditional policy-based agricultural insurance rate determination is relatively rough,with low protection levels and low enthusiasm for farmers to purchase insurance.Insurance companies operate relatively crudely because the current insurance policies often adopt a unified provincial rate,without considering the regional meteorological risk differences in the rapeseed planting process.Weather index insurance is based on scientific risk analysis for different rapeseed planting areas,evaluating the main meteorological risks faced during the rapeseed planting process,and implementing differentiated and refined rate determination based on this assessment.At the same time,as an innovative agricultural insurance product,weather index insurance is not affected by human factors,effectively reducing adverse selection and moral hazard risks,thus mobilizing farmers’ enthusiasm for rapeseed production and ensuring the realization of the "oilseed security strategy" in Jiangsu Province and even the whole country.Therefore,this paper studies the weather index insurance for rapeseed in Jiangsu Province,providing technical support and theoretical basis for the implementation of weather index insurance in the province.This paper first analyzes the important position of rapeseed in the national rapeseed production and the risks it faces in Jiangsu Province,and further explains the necessity of carrying out rapeseed weather index insurance.Then,taking the prefecture-level city as the unit of rapeseed planting,three trend yield fitting methods are compared and analyzed.Finally,the HP filter analysis method is selected to remove the trend of rapeseed yield and calculate the rapeseed yield reduction rate.Twelve weather indices,including precipitation index,low-temperature freezing damage index,sunshine duration index,and continuous rainy day index,were selected,which include temperature,precipitation,sunshine duration,and other weather factors.Then,a regression model between the rapeseed yield reduction rate and weather indices is established.Using the parameter distribution fitting method,assuming eight commonly used parameter distribution models in advance,and based on the A-D test results,the optimal fitting distribution of meteorological indices in each city is selected using the EasyFit software,and the pure rates of each city are determined based on the regression model between rapeseed yield reduction rate and weather indices.The pure premium of Jiangsu Province’s rapeseed weather index insurance is then determined using the non-parametric kernel density estimation method,and variance analysis shows that the rate determined by the parameter distribution fitting method is more in line with the actual situation in Jiangsu Province.Next,the existing traditional agricultural insurance mode is reviewed,and the rapeseed weather index insurance in Jiangsu Province is comprehensively designed,exploring from multiple perspectives such as operation mechanism,catastrophic risk-bearing mechanism,and additional incentive clauses.The research results of this paper show that under a 100%guarantee level,the pure rate of rapeseed weather index insurance in Jiangsu Province is between 1.03%and 3.44%,and the pure premium is between 9.01 yuan/acre and 30.19 yuan/acre.Finally,suggestions are made to build a sound agricultural risk management system,promote agricultural informatization,realize information sharing,use weather index insurance to promote rural revitalization,improve the basic database,and improve data openness.