1981-2018 China's Foreign Trade Price Conditions Calculation And Research On Influencing Factors

This thesis adopts a combination of theory and empirical method to measure China’s net barter terms of trade from 1981 to 2018 and analyze the factors that affect its change.This article selects a fixed basket of import and export commodities and calculates China’s import and export price index by using the Paasche index.Further,the trend of China’s total net barter terms of trade and that of classified products will be analyzed.Based on theoretical analysis including demand and supply effect of economic growth,wage spillover effect,J·Robinson’s elasticity approach and the optimum tariff,four main factors affecting China’s net barter terms of trade index were extracted,which are technical progress,foreign direct investment,exchange rate and tariff.Based on this,a VEC model of net barter terms of trade index and four factors was constructed.From the results of the Granger causality test,each of the four factors has a certain degree of explanation for China’s net barter terms of trade index.Based on the results of the empirical analysis,this article explains the model economically and puts forward policy recommendations in six areas: high-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road Initiative,further investment in research and development,guidance of foreign investment,progressive reform in exchange rate system,lower tariff and encouraging enterprise innovation.