The Impact Of Social Financing On Economic Growth In China

In recent years,the total amount of social financing in China has been increasing,and the financing structure has been continuously optimized.However,the internal development of the economy has been uneven,and external uncertainties have increased.Under such circumstances,the primary task of China's current financial reform is to effectively promote the real economy development,so exploring how social financing affects economic growth is of some significance for improving the ability of financial services to the real economy.This article examines the economic growth effect of social financing from two perspectives: the time-varying effect of social financing on economic growth and the effect of space spillovers.First,we use monthly data from January 2004 to September 2019 to construct a state space with variable parameters.The model empirically studies the dynamic impact of social financing on economic growth over time.The results show that social financing can effectively promote economic growth,and with the expansion of scale,its role in promoting economic growth continues to increase.In terms of financing methods,both indirect and direct financing can promote economic growth,There is a relationship of mutual elimination,and the positive effect of indirect financing on economic growth gradually weakens,while the positive effect of direct financing on economic growth continues to increase.Due to the flow of financial factors,the inter-regional spatial effect is becoming more and more obvious.In order to study the impact of social financing on economic development under the role of spatial correlation,this article selects 30 provinces except Tibet from the first quarter of 2014 to 2019 Regional financing scale data for the third quarter,empirical research using Spatial Dubin Model,The results show that there is a spatial autocorrelation in social financing scale,which has a space spillover effect on economic growth.Different financing methods have different effects on economic development.Compared with direct financing,indirect financing has a more significant role in promoting economic growth.With the help of the partial differential method,the Spatial Dubin Model can also decompose the total effects of social financing on economic growth,including direct spillover effects on local economic growth and indirect spillover effects on economic growth in surrounding areas.The results show that the difference between the direct spillover effect and the indirect spillover effect of social financing scale on economic growth is small,that is,the economic development of the surrounding areas can be promoted by improving the financing capacity of the region.Further,this article compares the empirical results of the three regions of East,Central,and West and finds that economic growth in the eastern region depends more on direct financing,while indirect financing in the central and western regions can promote economic growth.Based on the above empirical results,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations.