Research On The Market Transmission Mechanism Of Consumption Upgrade And Its Unbalanced Effect Under The New Normal

Since the economy entered the new normal,with the transformation and upgrading of the national economy,consumption has gradually become the main force driving economic growth and enhancing the endogenous growth momentum of the economy.At the same time,with the continuous improvement of China's residents' income levels,residents' consumption content and consumption patterns have changed greatly from before.Residents' service consumption expenditures have continuously increased in proportion to total expenditures,and service consumption expenditures have grown at a great rate Due to the growth rate of material consumption expenditures,at this stage,our residents are gradually clearing the path of consumption upgrading along the "material-service".Correspondingly,consumption upgrade will drive the overall industrial structure upgrade,which reflects the fact that the actual economic fact is that since the economy entered the new normal period,the service industry has gradually replaced industry as the largest industry in the national economy.In 2012,China 's tertiary industry accounted for GDP For the first time,the ratio surpassed the secondary industry.In 2015,the tertiary industry accounted for more than 50% of GDP for the first time.The development of the service industry has gradually become the most important factor affecting China's economic growth in the future.At the same time as the rapid development of the service industry,the problem of uneven development among regions,industries,and urban and rural areas in the corresponding service industry has gradually emerged.These imbalances seriously restrict the development of the service industry itself and affect residents on the supply side.The process of consumption upgrade.With the development of Internet technology,consumer finance and other related industries,it has given this consumption upgrade more powerful kinetic energy and more diverse and complex features.Consumer demand changes rapidly,thereby supplying related industries On the demand side,higher requirements are put forward for adaptability.During the period of economic transformation,the upgrading of consumption structure is a “bull nose” for the upgrading of related industries and economic development.In the face of the characteristics of consumption upgrade under the new normal,how to better understand the transmission mechanism and transmission effect of consumption upgrade on the supply side of the service industry and the second The interaction between people and economic growth has become an urgent task to improve the development level of the service industry,give full play to the leading role of consumption in economic development,and thus enhance the endogenous growth momentum of the economy.This paper builds a multi-sector general equilibrium model.The model includes intermediate product manufacturers,final product manufacturers and household sectors.The final product production sector only includes the industrial and service sectors.From the perspective of service consumption preference,according to Engel's law,the sensitivity coefficient of service consumption preference to income is introduced,and the formula of service consumption preference is set to describe the change of residents' service consumption preference in the process of consumption upgrade.By deriving the first-order conditions at equilibrium,we obtain the factors that affect the relative output of the service industry at equilibrium,study the transmission mechanism of consumption upgrade,and further derive the transfer of labor in the service sector,the relative price changes in service consumption,and the The relationship between economic growth.Finally,this paper uses the VAR model and uses the quarterly data of the urban-rural integrated household survey after the economy enters the new normal to conduct an empirical study on the transmission effect of the consumption upgrade of Chinese residents to the supply side of the service industry and the dynamic relationship between the two and economic growth.The results of empirical research on the one hand support the derivation of the above theoretical model,on the other hand,the dynamic relationship between variables also reflects the context of China 's consumption upgrade,due to China 's original development model and the level of service industry development,service Industry supply cannot effectively adapt to changes in consumer preferences on the demand side,and there are supply gaps in the service supply side.Finally,this paper combined with the derivation results of the theoretical model and practical experience to give the reasons for these problems and put forward relevant suggestions.