| Since the trade friction between China and the United States,the relationship between China and the United States has cast a shadow over China's export situation and even the economic situation.The change of China's exports to the United States can well reflect the effect of the tariff imposed by the United States on China.This paper takes China's exports to the United States as the research object,so as to reflect the impact of trade friction between China and the United States on China's economy.In this paper,the vector autoregressive model is used to include the RMB exchange rate,the intensity of tariff imposed by the United States on China,and the GDP of China into the model,so as to quantitatively analyze the impact of various factors on China's exports to the United States.The empirical results show that under the background of China-US trade friction,the exchange rate of RMB against the dollar and China's GDP have a significant impact on China's exports to the United States—— the depreciation of RMB promotes the growth of China's exports to the United States,while the appreciation of RMB inhibits the growth of China's exports to the United States;China's GDP growth can promote the growth of China's exports to the United States;The intensity of tariff imposed by the United States on China can restrain the growth of China's export to the United States,but its inhibitory effect is weaker than the promotion effect brought by the devaluation of the exchange rate.Further study found that the effect of tariffs policy of China and the United States is different,the reason is that China has "tariff-currency-exports" negative feedback balance mechanism.China,which is considered an export-oriented economy,saw its economic prospects deteriorate after the tariffs were imposed by the United States,leading to capital outflows and the devaluation of the RMB,which weakened the impact of the tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States. |
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