A Study On The Convergence Of Financial Development And Financial Aggregation In Guangdong-hong Kong-macao Greater Bay Area

The construction of the world financial center cluster in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is the internal demand of the economic,social and cultural development of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.It is also an important component and driving point of China's national regional development strategy in the face of Sino-U.S.trade frictions.It bears the strategic function of radiating and driving the development of Pan Pearl River Delta regional cooperation.This paper studies the integration process of the three Bay areas in the world,the convergence of financial development and the degree of financial aggregation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,providing reference for the construction of the world financial center cluster in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.Different from the other three Bay areas in the world,the most important feature of the financial integration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is that this process must be completed in the heterogeneous urban agglomeration of two systems,three currencies,three tariff areas and three legal systems.First of all,this paper studies the theoretical basis of the paper and the cases of three Bay areas in the world,and summarizes the aggregation characteristics and integration experience of the Bay Area in the world.Secondly,based on the annual economic data from 2003 to 2017,this paper makes an empirical study on the urban agglomeration of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.This paper first constructs the financial development index system,and measures the financial development difference of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao from the single index difference measurement methods such as speed and scale,coefficient of variation,Theil index,etc.,and then tests the convergence of ?,absolute ?,conditional ? and happiness of the financial development difference of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.Then,it constructs the financial aggregation index system,and uses the factor analysis method to test the financial aggregation degree of each city in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.The case and empirical results show that: first,a comprehensive regional development plan,a strong financial growth pole,a perfect urban division of labor system,scientific and technological innovation driven and developed communication and transportation networks are essential in the construction of the bay area urban agglomeration.Secondly,the financial development gap between the cities in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao has decreased,but there is still a large gap: most of the financial development indicators have ? convergence characteristics,and there is no absolute ? convergence;the main indicators such as financial related ratio have conditional ? convergence;Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Hong Kong and Macao and the other six cities have club convergence characteristics respectively.Third,there is a certain gap in the degree of financial agglomeration among the cities in Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.The cities with high degree of financial agglomeration in 2007-2016 are Hong Kong,Shenzhen,Guangzhou,Foshan and Dongguan,while the cities with low degree of financial agglomeration are Macao,Huizhou,Zhuhai,Zhongshan,Jiangmen and Zhaoqing.The degree of financial agglomeration in Foshan,Dongguan,Shenzhen and Guangzhou has a similar value in the observation period Trends.