Construct A Real Estate Market Early Warning System Based On Forward-looking Information Of Listed Real Estate Companies

With the deepening of land system and housing system reform in China,the real estate industry develops rapidly and is at a key position in the industrial chain,playing a decisive role in the development of national economy.The rapid expansion of the real estate market has also been challenged by new technologies such as the Internet,e-commerce and new retail models,which has led to the imbalance between supply and demand and other problems.The inventory and vacancy rate of some real estate enterprises have increased and the operating efficiency has decreased.Effective early warning of the real estate market through the monitoring and prediction of the real estate market operation is conducive to the formulation of relevant policies for the government,and promotes the healthy and orderly development of the property market.Different from the previous research on early warning of the real estate industry based on the indicators of different latitudes with high correlation degree,this paper innovatively uses the forward-looking information of listed companies required to be disclosed since 2002 to build an early warning system according to the project construction process of real estate enterprises.Forward-looking information not only has higher application value to market demanders,but also as a new research field,it will be more effective to construct the early-warning mechanism of the real estate market with its relevant data.But the supply of forward-looking information in terms of quality and quantity are still exist certain problems,especially that in the real estate industry.Real estate industry of the company's operating performance is different from their scales,which makes this paper face some difficulties in data collection.This paper takes the real estate industry as the object and takes the forward-looking information data of 32 representative listed real estate enterprises from 2009 to 2018 as the sample.Firstly,the paper explains the relatively new concept of forward-looking information of real estate, and explains that its application value is higher than traditional financial information from many angles.Secondly,based on the early warning objectives of the real estate industry in this paper and previous scholars' research on the early warning index selection,the Delphi method is used to establish the early warning index system based on the forward-looking information of real estate enterprises according to the investment and construction process of real estate enterprises.Then,guided by the scientific and reasonable real estate early warning theory,“entropy weight method” is used to determine the weight of various early warning indicators,the method and industrial safety evaluation standard are used to determine the early warning interval and early warning state,and the “index smoothing method” is used to predict the values of various early warning indicators in 2019 and 2020.The comprehensive early warning index is obtained and the early warning and prediction mechanism is constructed.In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the early-warning and forecasting mechanism,the paper designs the early-warning organization mechanism of the real estate market according to China's national conditions by using the method of literature reading.Finally,carrying on the single index of early warning alert analysis and comprehensive analysis of early warning alert,in real estate business climate index for reference,this paper finds the two leading synthetic early-warning index(i.e.,two years in advance warning of the housing market alert),proving that early warning forecast system with forward-looking information is effective and accurate.In addition,by forward-looking information to build real estate market early warning system,this paper forecasts the real estate market in 2020 and the result is partial heat.According to the warning result and the current economic environment development,the paper puts forward policy recommendations for the government in order to regulate the real estate market better than before,and prevents the real estate bubble.