Research On The Index System Construction And Operation Mechanism Of Commercial Real Estate Early-Warning

In the process of deepening the reform of China's land system and housing system,the real estate industry has developed rapidly and played a pivotal role in the development of the national economy.As an important part of real estate,commercial real estate has also been continuously developed.As the macro-control of the residential market continues to increase,more and more real estate development companies are shifting from the residential market to the commercial real estate market.At the same time of rapid expansion of commercial real estate,it is challenged by new technologies such as the Internet and e-commerce,and new retail models.The imbalance between supply and demand of commercial real estate is constantly emerging,inventory and vacancy rates are rising,and operating efficiency is declining.Commercial real estate early warning through the monitoring and forecasting of the commercial real estate market operation,timely warning and forecasting,is conducive to provide a basis for the relevant economic real estate to make correct economic decisions,and promote the healthy and orderly development of the commercial real estate market.At present,the research and practice of real estate early warning theory mostly focuses on the overall real estate market and residential market,but there are few early warning studies on the commercial real estate market.This paper takes narrow commercial real estate as the object,draws on macroeconomic early warning,real estate early warning theory and method,and uses literature analysis method,expert scoring method,cluster analysis method,analytic hierarchy process,exponential smoothing method and other research methods to construct commercial real estate early warning indicator system,and proposes a commercial real estate early warning operation mechanism,finally,takes Chongqing as an example to conduct an empirical analysis of commercial real estate early warning.Through literature analysis,the preliminary indicators of commercial real estate early warning are sorted out;on the basis of primary selection indicators,guided by the principle of index selection,the primary selection indicators are further streamlined by expert scores;combined with the analysis of “impact-transmission” of commercial real estate market.The early warning indicators are divided into three categories: commercial real estate development speed,commercial real estate internal coordination,commercial real estate and national economic coordination.The cluster analysis and correlation analysis are used to screen and obtain the final commercial real estate early warning index system.The commercial real estate early warning operation mechanism is a multi-dimensional,complex and orderly whole.It consists of four subsystems: early warning and forecasting mechanism,organizational mechanism,information mechanism and supervision mechanism and their respective subdivision elements.The early warning and forecasting mechanism is the key to early warning,including early warning methods,early warning indicator systems,early warning indicator weight determination,warning value prediction,warning limitation division and warning situation analysis.The core organizational mechanism is the organizational structure.The information mechanism includes the collection and storage of commercial real estate early warning indicator data,warning situation release,policy information database,expert database,warning situation countermeasures database,and information platform construction.The supervision mechanism includes supervision and restriction on the early warning process of commercial real estate warning from the collection,analysis and treatment of the early warning information,the release of the warning situation,and the implementation of the response measures.Through the empirical analysis of commercial real estate early warning in Chongqing,it is verified that the commercial real estate early warning indicator system and operation mechanism constructed in this paper have good applicability.From 2000 to 2017,the comprehensive operation status of commercial real estate in Chongqing showed a fluctuating state,and most of the years performed normally.It is predicted that it will be in normal state in 2018.However,it also showed problems such as rapid growth in scale,high inventory,and declining operating efficiency.This paper puts forward suggestions for promoting the healthy development of commercial real estate in Chongqing: actively promote the construction of commercial real estate system regulations,scientific preparation and construction planning,improve the land supply mechanism,strengthen infrastructure construction,and innovate commercial real estate development and operation mode.In order to provide reference for the decision-making of relevant subjects of commercial real estate in Chongqing.