Research On Crisis Early Warning Mechanism In Real Estate

After over twenty years of dramatic growth, real estate industry has become the pillar industry in China's economy, for the reasons followed. First, the total output value of the industry makes a magnificent contribution to the whole economy; secondly, real estate industry refers to interests of around sixty related fields and hundreds of millions of labor forces. However, history of industry development in developed countries and the situation we are confronting now tell us, there is a strong tendency of increase in economic froth while real estate industry grows fast and makes big profit. To the country, establish an early warning mechanism means to reinforce supervision on the real estate industry, including the companies, in order to ensure rational resources configuration, protect consumers'benefit and provide help to related government departments to make policies so that sustainable development of the industry is guaranteed. In teams of the real estate companies, such mechanism helps them maintain alert of their development and situation, while pursuing maximal profit, in the end effectuates a long term healthy development.In the article, related theories in business crisis and early warning for business crisis are presented at the beginning, including relatively developed research on early warning for enterprise finance crisis and fast developing crisis warning model of enterprise developing situation, which is based on intelligent information processing and target measurement methods. The popular research now is different crisis warning models for different industries. After analyzing features of real estate industry, the article combines the theories listed above and builds the assessment index systems for both enterprise external environment factors and internal environment factors. Choose appropriate early warning model which applies to internal and external assessment systems, then build enterprise external environment crisis early warning model based on enterprise pressure predicting model and enterprise crisis early warning assistant model based on target measurement methods. Furthermore, the article builds case-based reasoning real estate company crisis early warning assistant model to verify and adjust predicts. Related peripheral safeguard mechanism should be provided before these models work. Therefore, this article also builds the safeguard mechanism for crisis early warning model based on the situation how real estate companies work in.The article brings forward the real estate enterprise external environment early warning mechanism, which is based on enterprise pressure predict method and aggregative indicator index method, internal management crisis model and its assistant predict model, and case-based reasoning real estate enterprise crisis early warning model, on which builds safeguard mechanism for real estate enterprise crisis early warning model, including proper system structure, efficient and safe information platform, valuing human resources, and brings up the deviation control for crisis early warning, in the end establish a intact real estate enterprise crisis early warning mechanism.