Research On Credit Risk Of Accounts Receivable Financing In Supply Chain Finance

The emergence of supply chain finance has changed the evaluation of individual financing enterprises in the past.Taking the supply chain as the object of investigation and taking the core enterprises in the supply chain as the hub provide financing services for enterprises with capital needs in the supply chain based on the real transaction between the upstream and downstream of the supply chain.The essence of supply chain finance is a self-repaying trade financing based on real transactions between upstream and downstream enterprises of the supply chain,which combines business process,logistics,capital flow and information flow.Core enterprise is a key element in the business model of supply chain finance.It is an enterprise with good credit and high quality cash flow and better credit rating,and has the discourse power to some extent in the industry.Based on its real transactions with the core enterprise,and guaranteed by the creditor's rights of core enterprises,financing enterprises rely on the good credit of core enterprises,which improve the credit level of financing business and solve the financing problems.However,the quantitative analysis and preventive management system of supply chain finance risk in China are not perfect,so the effective identification and quantification of supply chain finance credit risk is the main problem facing the development of supply chain finance.This paper clarifies theories and concepts related to supply chain finance and risk assessment through literature.In this paper,the model of accounts receivable financing is selected as the research object,and the model and its risk sources are systematically elaborated.Firstly,in view of the availability of data,18 listed liquor enterprises were selected as core enterprise research samples,and the GARCH(1.1)model was constructed by using Eviews software to obtain the data of equity value fluctuations of each enterprise.Secondly,the modified KMV model is used to calculate the default distance of each core enterprise.Because our country has not yet set up a complete enterprise risk map database,this paper assumes that corporate defaults from complying with the standard normal distribution,and calculates the default probability of companies,which the default rate of liquor listed companies is relatively small,so it is considered that liquor listed companies are suitable for carrying out receivables financing business as core enterprises.Thirdly,the credit risk of receivables financing business is quantitatively evaluated by using analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,which provides a reference basis for the credit risk assessment of financial institutions.Finally,this paper proposes countermeasures and Suggestions for risk prevention from the aspects of credit risk prevention,so as to contribute to the prevention of credit risk in supply chain finance.