Research On Debt Scale Adjustment Of Shaanxi Province

With the increasing downward pressure on China's economy and the slowdown in fiscal revenue growth,there is currently a certain gap in local government finances.Although debt replacement can ease local government pressure in the short term,it does not address the quality of a large number of government debt and some counties.It is difficult to resolve the existing debt situation.In the context of limited debt investment,local governments need to increase effective investment,optimize the economic structure,prevent fiscal and financial risks,and maintain the sustained and healthy development of the local economy.In recent years,the scale of debt in Shaanxi Province has been increasing year by year.In 2018,some areas named by the Audit Office had problems with illegal borrowing.Therefore,in order to further improve the level of local government debt management,focus on preventing debt risks,and research on places that promote the economic and social development of Shaanxi Province.The moderate size of debt has become particularly important.This article lays the theoretical foundation for the writing of this article by introducing the core concepts of local government debt and elaborating the theoretical basis,and combining domestic and foreign literature on the research status of government debt scale expansion factors,moderate debt scale,and government debt risk.Secondly,this paper intends to start with the economic and financial development of Shaanxi Province and the current situation of debt scale in Shaanxi Province.This paper analyzes the problems and causes of debt scale in Shaanxi Province,and draws the conclusion that the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure in Shaanxi Province has intensified,the scale of debt is large,and the province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate Lower conclusion.Then conduct empirical research on the moderate scale of local government debt in Shaanxi Province.First,use the KMV model to quantitatively analyze the debt scale of Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 20185 and draw the conclusion that the debt scale is sustainable and the debt risk is controllable during the period;then reform the tax sharing system.As a node,the fiscal revenue of Shaanxi Province from 1994 to 2018 is selected as a sample.Based on maintaining the sustainable development of the economy,the KMV model is used to further predict its new local debt increase in 2019-2021.Through the description and quantitative analysis of the current status of debt scale,combined with the problems and causes of debt scale found in Shaanxi Province,reasonable measures and suggestions are put forward for Shaanxi Provincial Government debt scale management and debt risk prevention and control.In the end,this article believes that to ensure that the local debt of Shaanxi Province is within a moderate scale,the relationship between "steady growth" and "risk prevention" should be handled properly,the fiscal system reform should be deepened,the relationship between the central and local fiscal power mismatches should be adjusted,and debt management should be optimized,Improve the efficiency of the use of debt funds,speed up the establishment of a sound local government accountability system for raising debts,etc.It is hoped that through the study of this article,it will provide valuable decision-making reference for the local government debt scale control of Shaanxi Province.