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Posted on:2021-05-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J T LiFull Text:PDF
GTID:2439330629454089Subject:Quantitative Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
With the continuous growth of the aging population,China entered an ageing era in the 1990 s.Urban employee endowment insurance bears the important responsibility of retired employees to "have some support",and it is essential to ensure the healthy operation of urban employee endowment insurance funds.Enterprise contribution rate is a crucial parameter in the fund,and its changes will directly affect the operation of the urban employee pension insurance fund,and indirectly affect the national economic development level.Therefore,it is the starting point of the study to calculate a reasonable level of contribution rate for urban employees.For the calculation of the contribution rate of the urban employee pension insurance unit,both static and dynamic calculation methods are used.Among them,the static calculation is based on the premise of the fund balance of the urban employee pension insurance pooling account,and the pension insurance actuarial model is constructed,which is realized by R language software programming.The actuarial results show that the average unit contribution rate must reach 34%,and the fund will only reach the balance of the fund's revenue and expenditure between 2015 and 2030.The dynamic calculation uses the contribution rate of 34% as the upper limit of the enterprise's contribution,builds a system dynamics model of the urban employee pension insurance pool account fund operation,and uses vensim software for simulation analysis.The results show that: zero unit contribution rate will greatly promote the employment population The number and average wage level have improved the living standards of residents,but it has caused tremendous financial pressure and is unrealistic.The 34% unit contribution rate will cause a significant drop in the employed population and the average wage level.Although the income of the pension fund will increase in a short period of time,the contribution of the pension insurance fund will be affected by employment and the average wage over time.The foundation has a larger deficit than the benchmark scenario(unit contribution rate before 2019 is 20% and unit contribution rate for 2019 and beyond is 16%).It is more appropriate to adjust the relevant parameters of urban employees through compound simulation to obtain a contribution rate of 14%-16%.Within a reasonable range that the finance can afford,it promotes employment and improves the living standard of residents,while promoting the number of pension insurance participants and wages The increase in level thus promotes the good operation of the pension insurance fund system.Finally,the calculated modest unit contribution rate is applied to specific provinces.For the time being,the urban employee pension insurance system has not achieved national coordination.According to the balance of the urban employee pension insurance overall account balance,the 34 provinces of the country are divided into three levels of high,medium and low balances,of which Guangdong is the representative of the province with the high balance of the fund,and Hunan is the representative of the fund with the balance of the balance,Heilongjiang Province As a representative of the fund's low balance level,the calculated moderate unit contribution rate was brought into the urban employee pension insurance pool account fund system of these three provinces,and the computer was used for simulation.The results show that in provinces with high fund balances,a modest unit contribution rate not only increases the fund balance,but also promotes employment and raises wages.In addition,provinces with high fund balances have more room to reduce the unit contribution rate.Taking Guangdong Province as an example,the unit contribution rate has been reduced to 8%.As of 2030,the Guangdong Urban Employee Pension Insurance Co-ordination Account can still achieve the balance of the fund's revenue and expenditure.In the provinces of the fund and low balance,the moderate unit contribution rate of 14% to 16% has little effect on the fund balance compared with the benchmark situation,but lowering the contribution rate can promote employment and increase the average wage level.The fund system played a promoting role.It can be seen that the calculated unit payment rate range is reasonable.And according to the specific conditions of different provinces,refer to the calculated appropriate unit payment rate interval to adjust the payment rate appropriately.Appropriately reducing the level of unit contribution rate is of great significance to both economically developed and underdeveloped provinces.For economically developed areas,it can reduce the pressure of enterprises to promote economic development.For economically underdeveloped areas,it can promote regional investment Attract foreign investment,thereby improving the economic environment.
Keywords/Search Tags:unit payment rate, actuarial model, system dynamics, compound simulation
PDF Full Text Request
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