The Calculation Of Enterprise Annuity Payment Rate Under The Background Of Population Aging

Nowadays, economy, science and technology, medical development is rapid, so the population mortality rate decreased significantly, which leading to the proportion of the elderly population is rising, the emergence of the phenomenon of aging serious. Aging of the population resulted in the gap of basic old-age pension, to cause the state financial burden, individual account also bears the risk of empty account. The enterprise annuity system as the second pillar of Chinese endowment insurance system, causes the attention of experts and scholars at this time.This article mainly aims at to study the enterprise pension contribution rate of enterprise annuity system. First the author introduces the related theories of enterprise annuity, and then studied the enterprise annuity actuarial model, and analyzes the relationship with various influencing factors, found that differences in life expectancy between male and female employees could lead to enterprise annuity payment rate have bigger difference, then using an actuarial model, respectively calculates the contribution rate of male and female workers.When organized the literature, the author found the survival probability experts used to measure enterprise annuity payment rate are most from the "Chinese life insurance industry experience life table(2000--2003)", the data is old, cannot really reflect the great changes the population survival probability have occurred in recent years, so using the life table survival probability is not a good measure of the actual contribution rate. To solve this problem, in this paper, based on the definition of dynamic survival probability, figured out a group of new survival probability. First collect Chinese demographic data in 1994-2012 grouping by age and gender. Then use the time series data fitting each integer age population into ARMA(p, q) model, and using the fitting model of each age to forecast the future population in stage t. Finally chose who retired during the period of 2010-2012 as research group, based on the definition of dynamic survival probability to using population in recent years and forecasting population to estimate the survival probability of all ages from the retirement age to live to the expected life expectancy.Then, the paper put the new survival probability into the Enterprise Annuity Actuarial Model, calculate the male payment rate is 3.90% and the female contribution rate is 5.45%, if the enterprise annuity payment rate of the men employees is different from the women employees, so the male payment rate is higher than that of the female 1.55 percentage points. In addition, through comparing and analyzing, verify the qualitative analysis for the effect of each actuarial model variables making on the contribution rate, the enterprise pension contribution rate is inversely proportional to enterprise annuity investment expected return rate and one-year deposit rate, but is proportional to the average growth index of wages. Finally, according these conclusions put forward four feasible suggestions, insufficiency of the article and its methods of improvement, so as to provide more accurate and effective suggestions for relevant departments.