Research On Simulation Of Kunming Residential Market By System Dynamics

In the last decade, with the speeding up of urbanization in our country, the status of China’s real estate industry in the national economy continues to improve, the real estate market continues to develop, the housing problem gradually become the focus of national attention. Kunming’s real estate market development scale expanded year by year. The product quality gradually improved. The residents’ consumption concept is more and more mature. The real estate market towards sustainable and healthy development. But a few issues remain, such as housing price growth too fast, overheating, market structure imbalance and so on. Although the government has published a series of regulatory policies, but the market reaction not achieve expected goals. How to scientifically analyze the structure of the real estate industry, clarify complex factors influence the real estate market and reasonable forecast, simulated the policy effect to become one of research hot issues.In this paper, based on the theory of system dynamics, taking Kunming residential real estate market as the research object, analysis of various elements involved in residential housing market feedback, to set up the residential housing market system dynamics model. According to Kunming residential real estate market’s historical data since2005, determine the model and the initial value of each variable functional relationship between variables. Using Vensim5.4b PLE software to research the market supply, market demand and market price trend of Kunming residential real estate market from2005to2015. A simulation experiment was carried out for the real estate administrative intervention policy, monetary policy and tax policy, and giving some policy suggestions though analysis the experimental results. This research has certain reference significance to promote the healthy development of real estate in Kunming.