Research On The Potential Of China's Agricultural Trade With Russia

Since the 70 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Russia,bilateral trade has become increasingly close.However,as the world's major agricultural countries,China and Russia's agricultural trade only account for a small proportion in the two countries' trade.And China's trade in agricultural products has always been at a disadvantage.Therefore,it is necessary to accurately analyze the current situation of China's agricultural trade with Russia and scientifically analyze the trade potential of Chinese agricultural products in the Russian market.Based on the research of trade-related theory and its mechanism of action,this paper uses China as a reporting country to study the status of China's trade in Russian agricultural products from the aspects of trade size,trade product structure and trade status by analyzing statistical data and measure the potential of China's agricultural trade with Russia.Then,this paper tries to introduce new variables such as agricultural land area,infrastructure index and institutional distance to construct a stochastic frontal gravitational model.Then it uses the panel data from 2008 to 2017 to quantitatively analyze the potential of China's agricultural trade with Russia from the perspective of export and import.Finally,combined with the status quo of trade and empirical results,this paper proposes policy recommendations for promoting the development of China's agricultural trade with Russia.Through empirical analysis,it is found that:(1)The GDP of the two countries,the economic scale of the partner countries,the border between the two countries,the common language of using,and the signature of a free trade agreement will promote China's trade in Russian agricultural products.Geographic distance increases trade costs and hinders trade development.The increase in the size of China's population will boost domestic demand and hinder the development of China's agricultural trade.(2)China's export trade efficiency with Russian agricultural products is significantly lower than that of import trade,but there is still great potential for China's agricultural exports and import trade,and its export trade potential has room for improvement over import trade.(3)Agricultural land area has a positive effect on agricultural product trade.Infrastructure indicators will promote China's agricultural trade,of which the quality of port infrastructure plays the most important role,followed by the burden of customs formalities.With regrade to the institutional distance,the increase in the gap between commercial freedom and trade freedom will lead to unnecessary policy resistance between the two countries in engaging in commercial activities and hinder the development of agricultural trade;Judicial efficiency and tax burden will promote the development of China's agricultural trade: the greater the gap in judicial effectiveness,the higher the economic transparency of partner countries and the more conducive to trade development;And excessive tax burden gap will limit the exploitation of domestic resources in partner countries and expand imports trade.According to the status quo and empirical results of China's agricultural trade with Russia,this paper thinks that China's trade potential with Russian agricultural products can be explored from the following aspects: first,optimize the structure of agricultural products trade and improve market matching;second,cultivate agricultural products with regional characteristics and improve the quality of agricultural products exports;third,actively participate in regional economic cooperation and strengthen trade between the two countries;fourth,improve related infrastructure construction and reduce trade costs;fifth,strengthen the construction of relevant systems and improve the quality of the system.