Research On The Relationship Between Land Supply And Commercial Housing From The Perspective Of Supply Side Reform

The real estate industry is the pillar industry of Chinese nation al economic development,its development affects the sustained and healthy development of Chinese economy.As the role of the Chang sha city's real estate industry in Changsha city's economic develop ment is more and more obvious,the maintainstable and sustained d evelopment of the real estate industry has important significance on the economic development of Changsha city,its positive influence will be radiation to the central region and even the whole country.This article is based on the view of supply side structural reform hot spot and selected from 2006 to 2015 in Changsha city the change of the land supply and commercial housing incremental market situation as the research scope,the object is the relationship between land supply and incremental market of commercial housing.In theory,using the volume rate chart analyze the relationship between land supply and increased commercial housing;using the four quadrant model explore the impact of land price on commercial housing price;using cobb-douglas production function analyze the influence of land supply on the increased market of commercial housing.In empirical research,the main conclusions are as follows:(1)The relationship between land supply and incremental market ofcommercial housing: constructing multiple regression equation,using SPSS software to measure the relationship between them,the conclusion is that the the relevant level of land supply and commercial housing is0.618,the level of the land supply of previous year and commercial housing is 0.729.Indicating that the government in the use of land supply to regulate the real estate market,be more to consider the current land supply's influence on the future development of commercial housing market.(2)The relationship between land price and house price: Granger causality test is used in the causal relationship between land price and housing price,the test of land price and house price's original sequence founding that both belong to the non-flat sequence,after the second order difference,the sequence tends to be stable.In the smooth,that there may be a long-term equilibrium between the two,followed by co-integration test found that indeed there is the relationship.On this basis,using Granger causality test,the conclusion is that in the medium term,land price and housing price affects each other;in the long term,the impact of house price on land price is more obvious.(3)The relationship between land supply's structure and house price:using the data of affordable housing and high-grade residential land supply as the basis of analysis,founding that when the price is high,to increase the land supply of affordable housing,reduce the land supply ofhigh-end residential,will help to stabilize housing prices.Finally,using the grey forecasting model to forecast the real estate market demand,according to the perspective of the reform of the supply side,in view of the present situation of the commercial housing market's development in Changsha,from the perspective of the development of the real estate industry in Changsha,put forward suggestions on supply side reform.