Research On The Influence Of Demand Uncertainty On Supply Chain Performance

With the development of the e-commerce,more and more suppliers choose to sell products on e-commerce platforms.There are usually two contract models for ecommerce platforms and suppliers,wholesale price contract model and revenue sharing contract model.Demand uncertainty exist in the two models.Demand uncertainty leads to supply and demand mismatch,which increases the cost of enterprises.Technologies such as artificial intelligence can help companies reduce uncertainty and reduce the cost of supply and demand mismatch,but in practice,decision makers do not always follow the advice of artificial intelligence,and are willing to make decisions in an uncertain environment.In the e-commerce environment,it is of great significance to study the impact of uncertainty on supply chain performance.This paper assumes that the supply chain is composed of a supplier and an ecommerce platform,and uses Stackelberg game to analyze the impact of demand uncertainty on supply chain performance under different contract models.The paper defines three different demand model: the deterministic model is linear model,and the stochastic model is additive model(linear additive);the deterministic model is linear model,and the stochastic model is multiplicative model(linear multiplicative);the deterministic model is power model,and the stochastic model is multiplicative model(power multiplicative).First,under the wholesale price contract model,in the linear additive and linear multiplicative cases,if the cost is high and the uncertainty is moderate,the existence of uncertainty is beneficial to the supply chain members and the system: supplier revenue increases with increasing uncertainty,e-commerce platform and system revenue is higher than that when there is no uncertainty,and system operation efficiency is higher than when there is no uncertainty.in the power multiplicative case,the existence of uncertainty is detrimental to the members of the supply chain and the system.Second,under the revenue sharing contract model,in the linear multiplicative case,if the cost is low and the uncertainty is moderate,the revenue of the supplier and the system is higher than the revenue when there is no uncertainty,and the system operating efficiency is higher than the system operation efficiency when there is uncertainty.In the other two cases,the existence of uncertainty is detrimental to the members of the supply chain and the system.Third,from the perspective of the supplier,no matter what the demand model is,the supplier is always willing to choose the wholesale price contract model,because the supplier does not need to bear any inventory risk in this model.From the perspective of the e-commerce platform,in the linear multiplication and power multiplication cases,the e-commerce platform is more willing to choose the revenue sharing contract model,because most of the inventory risk under the cases is borne by the supplier.In the linear addition cases,if the uncertainty is high,the e-commerce platform is willing to choose the wholesale price contract model,because under the contract,although the ecommerce platform bears all the inventory risks,the supplier greatly reduces the wholesale price,the margin profit is high for the e-commerce platform,and the impact of marginal profit on the revenue of the e-commerce platform is more obvious.From the point of view of system operation efficiency,in the linear multiplication case,in most cases,the system operation efficiency is higher under the revenue sharing contract mode.In the power multiplication case,the system operation efficiency is higher under the revenue sharing contract model.In the linear addition case,if the uncertainty is high,the system operation efficiency is higher under the wholesale price contract model.This is because the supplier greatly reduces the wholesale price,and the e-commerce platform reduces the product sales price,accordingly,the double marginalization effect is mitigated much more.