Natural Gas Investment Risk Under "the Belt & Road Initiative"

The 19 th national congress of the communist party of China(CPC)put forward "the strategic task of promoting the revolution of energy production and consumption in order to build a clean,low-carbon,safe and efficient energy system",thus exploiting natural gas has become a strategic livelihood project.The "Belt & Road initiative "(BRI)took energy cooperation as the first priority,aimed to ensure the security of countries with abundant resource and the security of energy supply in consuming countries,that ensured complementary demand in order to provide new opportunities for the cooperation and integration of regional natural gas markets.By analyzing the natural gas resources of 64 countries along China's "Belt & Road initiative" and the cooperation in natural gas industry chain,this study finds that these countries play an important role in ensuring the security of China's natural gas supply.Based on the entropy weightfuzzy integrated evaluation model,This paper constructed a natural gas investment risk system from six dimensions with 26 indicators to analyze the natural gas investment risk level for 31 countries along the route from 2006 to 2017.The results show that resource potential and business environment are the primary considerations for China's abound natural gas investment.Russia and the United Arab Emirates are ideal choices for natural gas investment along China's "Belt & Road initiative".Based on the current situation of natural gas supply security in China and the risk analysis of abound natural gas investment,a natural gas supply security index(SSI)was proposed with 9 indicators.The results show that the index of investment risk and the security of natural gas supply changed in the opposite direction,China's natural gas supply security took on U-shape fluctuation.Finally,the paper puts forward policy suggestions on strengthening “The Belt & Road Initiative” risk research,minimizing the risk of natural gas investment,and ensuring the security of natural gas supply in China.